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Month: April 2016

Next Thursday could start to restore our confidence in the polls

Next Thursday could start to restore our confidence in the polls

Alastair Meeks on the importance of the London, Scottish & Welsh surveys The 2015 general election was a disaster for the polling companies. On the eve of the election, all the pollsters were predicting a hung Parliament with the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck. In the event, the Conservatives were 6% ahead of Labour and got an overall majority. Since then, the pollsters have flagellated themselves, put on hair shirts and sought to uncover what exactly went wrong. They…

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This week’s TV show: The Obama EURef effect, the fight to be his replacement, & the battle to win Wales

This week’s TV show: The Obama EURef effect, the fight to be his replacement, & the battle to win Wales

ThePB/Polling Matters TV Show and Podcast This week in the TV studio Keiran Pedley and I were joined by pollster Rob Vance and, via Skype, by the leading Welsh political expert, Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University. (apologies for one or two sound issues) The latter was particularly interesting given the Tata Steel decision and the proximity of the Welsh Assembly elections on next week on May 5th. Next week there’ll be no TV studio because of partners in this…

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Immigration looks set to be Leave’s last card

Immigration looks set to be Leave’s last card

Alastair Meeks looks at the outers The Remain side has started the fight at a furious pace, leaving Leave gasping for air after two blows to its solar plexus.  First, it got hit by a Treasury report claiming that by 2030 each British household could be £4,300 worse off if it voted to leave the EU.  Then Barack Obama weighed in with his view that if Britain were to vote to leave the EU, it would join the back of…

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Tonight’s US primaries – “North East Tuesday”

Tonight’s US primaries – “North East Tuesday”

Pulpstar on the White House Race Dems On the Democrat side, expect Hillary to add to her total – the question for Sanders will be whether he can keep the damage to under 300 pledged delegates and perhaps scrape out a win in Rhode Island – which looks his best shot. The contest was over long ago anyways. On the GOP side, the states run through as follows Delaware A foregone conclusion, the only thing of interest will be whether…

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The IN lead drops by 4% in the first published poll since the Obama intervention

The IN lead drops by 4% in the first published poll since the Obama intervention

How the @Telegraph is portraying both sides in the BRXIT battlehttps://t.co/XOqClIoPRH pic.twitter.com/MgwihNU4K8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2016 UPDATED referendum polling table showing new ORB survey with gap narrowing pic.twitter.com/3u9aBW7eXs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2016 The OUT team will be absolutely delighted with today’s ORB phone poll in the Telegraph which sees last week’s 9% IN lead drop to just five. Whether this is the start of a trend or no we don’t know. In March ORB…

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The Mayor, the pro-IN Mayor’s Dad and the LAB approach to EURef

The Mayor, the pro-IN Mayor’s Dad and the LAB approach to EURef

Donald Brind on how the campaign is unfolding   “It’s up to you in the Labour Party to save us.” I was too polite to reply: “From your son, you mean?”, for this was Stanley Johnson, the charming father of boorish Boris, the Brexiteer. Boris is the black sheep of the Johnson clan. As is well known, his decision to join the Leave camp put him in opposition not just to his father but also to his brother Jo, the…

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Why Cameron and his team are targeting parents with children

Why Cameron and his team are targeting parents with children

Why we need to vote to remain in Europe for our children: https://t.co/lRlS6FJ6mi — David Cameron (@David_Cameron) April 25, 2016 The polling that shows that looking after kids more likely to be for IN The more we learn about the Tory campaign at GE2015 the more we realise that micro-targeting specific demographic group on Facebook played a big part and looks set to be ever more significant in future election. You tailor a special message to those who fit the…

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