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Month: February 2016

If the phone polls have got this right Dave’s more in tune with Tory voters than party members or many MPs

If the phone polls have got this right Dave’s more in tune with Tory voters than party members or many MPs

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Saw  ComRes has them splitting 52%-39% for IN It is a fact that all but one of the telephone polls carried out on the referendum since the General Election has shown more Conservative voters wanting to remain than leave. The exception was last week’s ComRes poll for ITV that had the IN lead down from 18% to 8%. This morning, as covered in the last thread,  the Mail is reporting a shift back to IN. The detailed data is now…

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Two new EURef polls just published show IN improving its position against OUT

Two new EURef polls just published show IN improving its position against OUT

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UPDATED with tonight's EURef polls. Table of all recent published surveys pic.twitter.com/Gpfh41vdss — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2016 Although the phone and online polls showing very different headline numbers the trend is the same – a move to IN since Cameron's deal. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2016 Tweets on the YouGov/Times poll Interesting thing about tonight's YouGov poll is no Boris bounce, and support for EU renegotiation much higher than support for draft deal — Sam Coates…

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From today’s campaigning exactly four months before Britain votes

From today’s campaigning exactly four months before Britain votes

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The voting public’s going to have to get used to this An “Out” video From a Leave.EU Tweet Like this collage from @LeaveEUOfficial pic.twitter.com/hawK1NPexJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2016 From IN New analysis shows that leaving the EU could see the pound drop by TWENTY PER CENT. Proof that we’re #StrongerIn. pic.twitter.com/qC2DachQGo — People's Vote HQ (@peoplesvote_hq) February 22, 2016

Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls the trend has been away from REMAIN

Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls the trend has been away from REMAIN

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There’s been a huge amount of discussion about the big differences between the phone and online referendum polls. Whatever is driving this, and there have been many theories, the trend with each mode in the PB EURef polling averages has been the same – away from REMAIN. As can be seen from the chart the current month sees online with a LEAVE lead while REMAIN is down sharply. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting

The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting

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Alastair Meeks asseses the differing scenarios In a rational world, the Conservative party would select the candidate who is best able to connect with the concerns of the public and develop and explain Conservative policies to meet those concerns.  However, we are dealing with the Conservative party here and the successful candidate is going to need to win over two different electorates long before he or she gets to the voters who will actually select the next government.  With the…

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The Bullingdon boys go into battle and it ain’t going to be pretty

The Bullingdon boys go into battle and it ain’t going to be pretty

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Dave v Boris will dominate the next four months Cracking Cameron performance today in Commons. Sure a PM has the advantage on these occasions, but he used it. Boris looking a bit crumpled. — Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) February 22, 2016 We’ve always known that Dave is at his best when his back is to the wall and that’s how it must have seen this morning with the massive media coverage of the decision by Boris to back LEAVE. His performance…

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New LAB member polling highlights huge gulf between them, party voters and electorate as a whole

New LAB member polling highlights huge gulf between them, party voters and electorate as a whole

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From @election_data The mismatch between views of LAB members/ Voters and public on key issues pic.twitter.com/wyXJAFk1rS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 22, 2016 .@election_data /YouGov poll of LAB members. on whether LAB's GE2015 policies not left wing enough pic.twitter.com/OzczyLjecS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 22, 2016 The Election Data website has just published its latest LAB member polling which it carries out with YouGov. There’s a huge amount in the data and the two charts above are the most striking….

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Boris Johnson can lead Britain out of Europe – if he’s serious about it

Boris Johnson can lead Britain out of Europe – if he’s serious about it

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But if not then he might have made a big mistake writes Keiran Pedley So its official, Boris backs Brexit. After a period of intense speculation in Westminster, the Mayor of London has come off the fence and announced that he will campaign for Britain to leave the E.U.  Make no mistake, this is a major coup for the ‘Leave’ campaign which, until now, has been widely derided for the apparent lack of credible leaders within its team. In the…

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