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Month: February 2016

Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory

Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory

QSaw  NO2AV won by 35.8% The table shows the published AV referendum polls for February/early March in 2011 about two months before the election in early May. As can be seen  all the online polls had leads for the YES camp. The only phone poll, ICM, had it level-pegging. Unlike the EU Referendum there was much less interest and awareness and, of course, these  were carried out before the Cameron-approved anti-Clegg attack adds that dominated the final period. But the…

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Never mind Super Tuesday, get ready for Mega March

Never mind Super Tuesday, get ready for Mega March

In three weeks’ time, the nominations could be locked up The preliminaries are all but over with the first phase of the presidential primaries doing the job assigned them: knocking out (most of) the also-rans and narrowing the field to the serious contenders and the hobby-horseists. The game of musical chairs that is Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada left Huckabee, Fiorina, Christie, Bush, Rand Paul, Santorum and O’Malley all standing after the music stopped. Thank you and good…

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Enter the Politicalbetting Prize Referendum competition

Enter the Politicalbetting Prize Referendum competition

Predict the LEAVE and turnout percentages to 2 decimal points Win a £250 free bet at William Hill Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter the LEAVE and turnout pecentage down to decimal points The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error. I am delighted to announce that William Hill has once again agreed to provide a competition prize of a free bet for £250. If the winner does not have an account…

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The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks

The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks

Let’s go outside. Betting strategies in a tinderbox  Sometimes a lot of knowledge is a dangerous thing.  You can get very bogged down in the minutiae and ignore the big picture.  And right now, there are precisely three important things going on in British politics. Labour are divided and moving leftwards under their new leader, to the horror of most of their MPs. The Conservatives are divided with a large chunk of the party wishing to move rightwards as a result…

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Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to David Cameron’s Caesar

Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to David Cameron’s Caesar

Video: The assassination of Julius Caesar and which has served as guide for The Tory Party in the past on deposing leaders. Nota bene, the video contains graphic violence not suitable for minors nor those of a delicate disposition. The Tory Party has a ruthless tradition of deposing leaders even the electorally successful ones, unlike most parties, the Tory party has a history of stabbing their leaders not in the back, but usually in the front, very publicly. Boris Johnson…

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South Carolina goes as expected – an overwhelming victory for Hillary

South Carolina goes as expected – an overwhelming victory for Hillary

Hillary Clinton wins overwhelming victory in South Carolina. pic.twitter.com/k3wLjtmOI2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2016 New York Times A great platform for “Super Tuesday” As I write the votes are still being counted in South Carolina but the networks all declared her the overwhelming winner of South Carolina based on the exit polls alone. She’s certain to pick up the lion’s share of the 59 delegates at stake and goes into Tuesday very much as the presumptive nominee. Mike…

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Only the FBI can stop Hillary now

Only the FBI can stop Hillary now

But what happens if they do? It could have been very different. Had Bernie Sanders won the caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, Hillary Clinton’s campaign would now be in disarray. Rather than today’s South Carolina primary being a foretaste of the likely landslide she’ll win on Super Tuesday, it would be seen as a must-win vote simply to remain in the race; Super Tuesday itself would most likely have been a closer contest building off the back of a hat-trick…

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