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Month: January 2016

Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday

Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday

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Cruz makes last minute plea to pastors in the state There’s an increasing consensus which I buy into that if Trump wins in Iowa next Monday then he’ll be almost unstoppable. The organisational challenges at the state’s caucuses are formidable. Probably only about 12% of those eligible take part in the complex process of attending a two hour meeting in one of the 1,600 precincts where caucus meetings are held. Generally the best guide as to whether someone will participate…

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Corbyn: Alastair Meeks looks at the options for Labour’s right wing

Corbyn: Alastair Meeks looks at the options for Labour’s right wing

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Believing six impossible things before breakfast Jeremy Corbyn has come in for much criticism from the right of the Labour party since he took over as leader of the Labour party.  He has been accused of indulging in fantasy politics, of deluding himself that the British public will ever elect a party on such a left wing prospectus and of surrounding himself with third raters whose only virtues are their impeccably socialist credentials.  But the Labour right is just as…

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A week to go until Iowa: the Great American Gamble – to Trump or No Trump

A week to go until Iowa: the Great American Gamble – to Trump or No Trump

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7 days till Iowa. How the polls did in previous electionshttps://t.co/d28erYivkh pic.twitter.com/iTFgroQNXF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016 ARG Democratic poll in Iowa has Sanders 48% Clinton 45%GOP race Trump 33% Cruz 26%https://t.co/L1APSJBxtl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016

Leader ratings side by side: How JC’s doing against DC generally & with party supporters

Leader ratings side by side: How JC’s doing against DC generally & with party supporters

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The next general election, of course is unlikely to be between Corbyn’s LAB and Cameron’s CON. The latter has made his exit intentions partially clear though we don’t know whether it’ll be before the election or afterwards. There’s doubt on the Labour side as well. Interestingly in recent days PB’s two LAB post writers, Henry G and Donald Brind, have both suggested that they don’t thing Corbyn will be there at the election. Whatever the chart above can only be…

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The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the pollsters did worse than the British ones at GE2015

The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the pollsters did worse than the British ones at GE2015

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Many punters lost a lot of money that night One of the great nights on PB was the New Hampshire primary in January 2008. It came a week after the Iowa caucuses where Obama pulled off a significant victory. Interest was intense as one of the two main parties look set to be the first in US history not to select a white man as nominee. Following Iowa the media narrative was all on Obama and the final polls for…

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The changing politics of Northern Ireland

The changing politics of Northern Ireland

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks on the unknown First Minister Part of the United Kingdom got a new leader earlier this month.  You probably missed this: most people did.  Following the usual tortuous process that its politics always seems to entail, Northern Ireland now has a new First Minister.  Arlene Foster took over as First Minister (the first woman to hold that role in Northern Ireland) on 11 January 2016.  She is also the first female leader of the…

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Donald Brind says a challenge to Corbyn’s leadership is now a “virtual certainty”

Donald Brind says a challenge to Corbyn’s leadership is now a “virtual certainty”

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Reflecting on a dispiriting week for the red team Corbyn’s tent suddenly looks a lot smaller after the loss of policy chief Neale Coleman.  a big loss.  “If you want them to eat chicken, don’t lay out a buffet”. That’s a favourite piece of advice from a Lefty friend who I work with offering training in media skills to progressive folk in the Labour movement and charities. The point of the advice is — focus on your key message and don’t get…

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Electoral reform might not be the panacea the left hope it is

Electoral reform might not be the panacea the left hope it is

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If the 2015 general election had been fought under PR, the Tories would most likely still be in government (probably in coalition with UKIP) There’s a very interesting story in today’s Independent on Sunday. Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives. Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP a close ally of Mr Corbyn who is acting…

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