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Month: January 2016

Corbyn drops to his lowest level yet amongst those who voted LAB last May

Corbyn drops to his lowest level yet amongst those who voted LAB last May

More numbers, no doubt, for Corbynistas to remain in denial about Every month for more than 40 years the pollster Ipsos MORI has carried out leader ratings. The question format has been the same simply asking people whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the leaders. As I’ve argued and shown these ratings have proved to be a better indicator of General Election outcomes than standard voting intentions. If we’d have followed these at GE1992 and GE2015…

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Local By-Election Preview : January 28th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : January 28th 2016

Parkfield and Oxbridge (Lab defence) on Stockton-on Tees Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 32, Conservatives 13, Independents 10, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 8) Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,608, 1,501 (46%) Conservative 950, 887 (27%) Independent 419 (12%) Green Party 285 (8%) Liberal Democrats 192, 179 (6%) Libertarian 58 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Peter Braney (UKIP), Drew Durning (Lib Dem), Allan Mitchell (Lab), Stephen Richardson (Con) Stockton on Tees…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast looks ahead to Iowa and the importance of turnout

This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast looks ahead to Iowa and the importance of turnout

Just 3 days to go before voting starts On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran speaks to Will Jordan from YouGov in the U.S. They discuss the state of the 2016 race as it stands, the importance of turnout at next week’s Iowa caucuses (and what that might mean for Trump and Sanders) plus how important Iowa will be for the wider race in such an apparently unconventional election cycle. You can follow Keiran at@keiranpedley and Will at @williamjordann

Concern about the economy at highest level since 2013

Concern about the economy at highest level since 2013

Economic optimism at lowest level since 2013 pic.twitter.com/sjhyhQ1YOc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2016 This could hinder the BREXIT campaign? The January Ipsos-MORI economic optimism index is out and shows the lowest figure since 2013. This has been a regular tracker from the firm for decades and is calculated by taking the percentage of those saying they are optimistic about the economy and deducting those who are negative. In the current context in the run up to the EU…

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Iowa and New Hampshire polling round-up

Iowa and New Hampshire polling round-up

At this point in —2004: Dean +62008 (D): H. Clinton +9.8(R): McCain +62012: Gingrich +4.3https://t.co/8pTnsrf0Ds — EV Tracker (@ev_tracker) January 27, 2016 Suffolk University poll has Bernie well ahead in New Hampshire Sanders 50, Clinton 41, O'Malley 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 CORRECTIONMonmouth University Iowa Poll Trump 30%,Cruz 23%, Rubio 16% Carson 10%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 And the poll that I’ll be basing my Iowa bets on… Final Poll coming Saturday evening. Stay…

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If all goes to Dave’s plan British voters will be filling in one of these in just 144 days

If all goes to Dave’s plan British voters will be filling in one of these in just 144 days

What the #EUref ballot paper looks like pic.twitter.com/3fyOYNUmer — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 The online-phone EURef poll gap remains REVISED #EURef polling table showing all published surveys over past 2 months pic.twitter.com/ogzBOR97h5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 A picture of the actual referendum ballot paper was featured on the BBC Daily Politics this morning. The pic above is a screen shot. There’s something about seeing a ballot paper that makes an election very real and all…

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Trump’s big pre-Iowa gamble: pulling out of Thursday’s TV debate in ongoing row with Fox News

Trump’s big pre-Iowa gamble: pulling out of Thursday’s TV debate in ongoing row with Fox News

How are caucus voters going to view this? The big overnight WH2016 news is that Donald Trump has pulled out of the final TV debate before voting actually starts in the elongated process to choose the party nominees The Fox News clip above is how the most watched news channel by GOP voters is reporting the decision. This inevitably recalls memories of his spat in August last year with Fox News presenter Megyn Kelly when she sought to take him…

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