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Month: November 2015

If as is likely the Tories can’t win in Oldham then the best outcome for the blues is a LAB hold

If as is likely the Tories can’t win in Oldham then the best outcome for the blues is a LAB hold

The last things CON want are UKIP gaining traction or Corbyn being ousted A week today I’ll be at a wedding of a friend who’s been associated and helped PB for years so probably won’t be that much focused on the outcome, due overnight, of the Oldham West and Royton by-election. One thing that strikes me strongly is that it is not in the Tory interest for UKIP to win – even if that means a LAB hold. As we…

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The Syria decision: Doubters make the best persuaders

The Syria decision: Doubters make the best persuaders

Donald Brind on Friday – from a Labour pespective “‘Oh gosh, yes,’ said the Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby when asked if the terror attacks in Paris had caused him to doubt God. They had, he said, put a ‘chink in his armour’ of faith. But he warned against a knee-jerk military response, saying: ‘Two injustices do not make justice … If we start randomly killing those who have not done wrong, that is not going to provide solutions.” There…

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All this week’s local by-election results

All this week’s local by-election results

Carnforth and Millhead (Con defence) on Lancaster Result: Conservative 545 (55% +7%), Labour 320 (32% -3%), Green Party 52 (5% -12%), Liberal Democrat 38 (4%, no candidate in 2015), United Kingdom Indepdendence Party 37 (4%, no candidate in 2015) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 225 (23%) on a swing of 5% from Labour to Conservative Rochford (Con defence) on Rochford Result: Labour 332 (32% -16%), Conservative 328 (32% -20%), United Kingdom Independence Party 250 (24%), Liberal Democrat 114 (11%)…

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It’s Black Friday and another less than optimal day for Labour and its new leader

It’s Black Friday and another less than optimal day for Labour and its new leader

How the I is front-paging LAB's division over Syria pic.twitter.com/UuVyuAbqn9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2015 Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is facing the threat of resignations from his shadow cabinet amid a split over his… https://t.co/TOHdAtl1cp — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 27, 2015 https://twitter.com/election_data/status/670031375488180225 Labour's headaches could be even bigger next Friday morning – after the Oldham by-election — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2015 Sorry Labour. Your day is getting worse. https://t.co/AujRFVPM1V pic.twitter.com/PQpkPmFG1X — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 26,…

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Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview with ten separate contests

Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview with ten separate contests

Carnforth and Millhead (Con defence) on Lancaster Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 19, Green Party 9, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 2) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,405, 1,238, 1,184 (48%) Labour 1,027, 981, 921 (35%) Green Party 495 (17%) Candidates duly nominated: George Askew (Con), Christopher Coats (Green), Phillip Dunster (Lib Dem), Paul Gardner (Lab), Michelle Ogden (UKIP) Morecambe and Lunesdale was a key Labour…

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11 weeks of EURef polling and all but two of the surveys online

11 weeks of EURef polling and all but two of the surveys online

We urgently need more mode variation Above is my latest spreadsheet of all the recent EURef polls. As can be seen the battle is quite tight with, by a smidgeon, the edge at the moment being to REMAIN. In the period covered by the table there have been nine different GE2020 phone polls yet just two of them have included the EURef voting question. Why do they go to all the cost and expense of phone polling and don’t seek…

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Corbyn might have to face another tricky electoral test in the New Year

Corbyn might have to face another tricky electoral test in the New Year

A by-election in another LAB stronghold could be in the offing Word has reached me from a reliable source that another safe LAB seat where the party might have to fight a by-election. It would take place during the first half of 2016. Apparently the sitting MP might have to stand down for an innocuous personal reason. It’s suggested that the contest would take place on the same day in May as next year’s Welsh/Scottish/London elections. I don’t know the…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: The 2016 White House race with Stan Greenberg

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: The 2016 White House race with Stan Greenberg

On this week’s episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran discusses the 2016 US Presidential race with Democratic pollster and strategist Stan Greenberg. Stan talks about his new book ‘America Ascendant’ where he outlines the profound demographic and cultural changes that have taken place in the U.S. and why they make the Democrats most likely to triumph in 2016 (and beyond). Stan also picks his three GOP candidates to watch and predicts an unlikely eventual nominee. Finally, the…

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