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Month: July 2015

The issues facing Britain: Immigration and NHS down/ Defence-terrorism sharply up

The issues facing Britain: Immigration and NHS down/ Defence-terrorism sharply up

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The July Ipsos MORI Issues index sees declines for immigration & NHS but big increase for defence/terrorism pic.twitter.com/VxHqDcxB6N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI: The differing view of CON & LAB voters on what they seeas most important issues pic.twitter.com/FGlPnXh8J3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2015 The Ipsos MORI issues index is unique. Sample asked entirely unprompted what they see as key issues. It's regarded as good test of salience — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29,…

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What the latest private LAB polling has done to the betting

What the latest private LAB polling has done to the betting

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Burnham the big loser after survey had him 3rd One of the great features now on the Betfair exchange for those who like trading is that with one click you can cash out and instantly get to a position where you are equal on all outcomes. Yesterday evening just after news of the latest private polling came out there was nearly £10,000 available on Betfair for those who wanted to lay Andy Burnham at the price of 2.1. Effectively this…

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“Private poll” seen by Mirror sees Corbyn with 22% lead on first prefs with Cooper pipping Burnham for 2nd place

“Private poll” seen by Mirror sees Corbyn with 22% lead on first prefs with Cooper pipping Burnham for 2nd place

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The private poll seen by Mirror with Corbyn 22% ahead & Cooper in 2nd place. http://t.co/b3wbQFQhtI pic.twitter.com/bSMovl8nhP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 28, 2015 It’s hard to comment on private polling and I’ve no idea about the veracity of it. But I don’t think that the Mirror would be flagging it in the way it is without it having some confidence about the source. The Corbyn lead is extraordinary and fits in with other indicators. The question is which of…

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ORB/Indy poll finds that 76% think that LAB less electable now than it was on May 7th

ORB/Indy poll finds that 76% think that LAB less electable now than it was on May 7th

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The front page of tomorrow's I pic.twitter.com/2fkFD2SRqT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2015 But does this poll really tell us anything? An ORB poll for the Independent carried out over the weekend finds that 76% of those who had a view believe that LAB is less electable now than it was at the general election. We’ve not yet seen the dataset or the precise question wording but the overall picture looks gloomy for the red team and sets out…

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Why getting a credible leader is so important to LAB: YouGov polling on why the party lost

Why getting a credible leader is so important to LAB: YouGov polling on why the party lost

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The data that underlines the importance of the current election Whichever of the four ins he/she will have to be perceived a lot better than Ed was if the red team is to have any chance whatsoever. This polling should be at the heart of the leadership campaign. A non-credible leader means a likely third consecutive general election defeat. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Why we won’t be hearing much from the Tories this summer

Why we won’t be hearing much from the Tories this summer

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The Tories Are Staying Off TV So Everyone Watches Labour Tear Itself Apart: http://t.co/AZhXnbt9eV pic.twitter.com/23BfY8ZdKy — BuzzFeed News UK (@BuzzFeedNewsUK) July 27, 2015 Notice there’s been nothing from the blue side re-Mid Staffs Probably the most successful Lynton Crosby message in the run-up to May 7th was the warning of “confusion and chaos” if Labour was returned. It was this, I’d suggest that helped get the marginal CON supporters out to vote and UKIP switchers back into the fold in…

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The prospect of fighting a disintegrating LAB could cause Dave to change his mind about stepping down

The prospect of fighting a disintegrating LAB could cause Dave to change his mind about stepping down

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Is he having second thoughts about his exit date? Following Cameron’s comments in the BBC interview at the end of March there’s a widespread assumption that at some stage this parliament that he’ll step aside and a new CON leader will be elected presumably becoming PM before the May 2020 general election. But is he? The conversation in Cameron’s kitchen came at a time when the election outcome looked very tight. Very few were making assumptions that an overall CON…

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