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Month: June 2015

Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015

Pentyrch on Cardiff (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 4, Plaid Cymru 2 (Labour majority of 17) Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 772 (54%), Labour 413 (29%), Plaid Cymru 171 (12%), Green 40 (3%), Liberal Democrat 22 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Cadan ap Tomos (Lib Dem), Paul Fisher (Lab), Gavin Hill (Con), Munawar Mughal (Ind), Ruth Osner (Green), Hywel Wigley (Plaid) Cardiff, the capital city of…

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Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

BREAKING: German government official says it is now too late for an extension of the Greek bailout programme. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 BREAKING: Greek finance minister says Greece will not pay the IMF on Tuesday. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 For the Greek people, it appears this tragedy has been going on longer than it took Odysseus reach home after the fall of Troy, but looking at the above tweets, it is looking like that we…

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How the economic case for Scottish Independence was weakened in the last week

How the economic case for Scottish Independence was weakened in the last week

Picture credit: Twitter How opponents of Scottish independence may have struck metaphorical oil in the last week. The top table (table 5) is taken from the Scottish Government’s white paper on independence published in late 2013, whilst the bottom table (table 1) is from the Scottish Government’s Oil & Gas bulletin published last week. As the Guardian notes The Scottish government has been accused of trying to bury a report that predicts North Sea oil revenues could be £40bn less…

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How the voters moved on May 7th

How the voters moved on May 7th

Superb work from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus on how the votes switched on May 7th http://t.co/4fOpjObE7x pic.twitter.com/A29Y8a37ss — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 29, 2015 This is a great bit of analysis of how the voters moved on election day from the previous general election, Martin Baxter explains The graphic shows the various migrations of one hundred typical voters from 2010 to now. Voters who have switched from one party to another are shown moving along the corresponding arrow. “Lost” supporters…

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Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

Antifrank looks at the art of changing boundaries In my last post I spent some time looking at the likely impact of the impending boundary changes on the numbers of seats in different regions and the potential impact on the seat numbers of different parties.  In this post I shall look at how the detail of the boundary review might assist or hinder the different parties. National party strategic considerations In the boundary commission review in the mid-1990s the Conservatives…

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Why you should be backing Jeremy Hunt as next PM

Why you should be backing Jeremy Hunt as next PM

A betting slip from a few days ago. Despite their very best efforts, Labour wasn’t able to weaponise the NHS to their advantage or damage the Tories on the NHS in the election campaign (nor in the run up to the election.) The NHS is an issue that has been traditionally perceived to be one of Labour’s strongest areas, Labour’s failure to make the NHS an election issue says a lot about Hunt’s abilities as a Minister and to deal with…

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How winning a political bet can get you into trouble

How winning a political bet can get you into trouble

This story in the Mail on Sunday makes me like Frank Field even more. http://t.co/YkpgxFTzmK pic.twitter.com/0fDSOtJasW — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 28, 2015 Just don’t tell anyone you bet on your own side losing I like this story in the Mail on Sunday, Frank Field the Labour MP for Birkenhead and Matthew Taylor, Tony Blair’s former head of policy and who wrote the 2005 Labour manifesto both bet on the Tories winning a majority in May. This has understandably earned the…

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Schrödinger’s referendum as Boris wants voters to vote both Yes and No to leaving the EU

Schrödinger’s referendum as Boris wants voters to vote both Yes and No to leaving the EU

Today’s Sunday Times is reporting (££) BORIS JOHNSON is preparing to call for a no vote in Britain’s referendum on the European Union in an attempt to extract greater concessions from Brussels than David Cameron is demanding. In a stance that puts him on a collision course with the prime minister, the mayor of London believes Britain should reject any deal Cameron puts forward because the EU will not give enough ground. Johnson has told friends that a no vote…

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