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Month: March 2015

And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

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The winner of tonight's debate was #BattleForNumber10 pic.twitter.com/fBGvcyNiF7 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2015 Jeremy Paxman proved why he’s the best in the business. But I do wonder if Ed Miliband’s “Hell Yeah”when Paxman asked him if he was “tough enough to deal with the likes of Putin” maybe the most memorable event from the whole debates and interviews. Whether it is for good or ill, we will soon find out. Though Paxman’s off mic comment at the end to…

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Let the debates begin

Let the debates begin

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  Well the interviews at least. You can watch the event live by clicking the youtube video below.   I think Ed will be perceived to be the winner from tonight’s events, because the old maxim of success equals performance minus expectation, and the expecation for Ed is probably lower than it is for David Cameron, especially after David Cameron’s successful performance at PMQs yesterday. Will one or both of them have a surprise in store? I expect the other…

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By election preview 26th of March 2015

By election preview 26th of March 2015

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Glenrothes West and Kinglassie on Fife (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012) : Labour 35, Scottish National Party 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4, Conservatives 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5) Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected Scottish National Party: Brown 910 E, Walker 349, Grant 941 E (42%) Labour: Craik 708 E, Campbell 1,424 E (41%) Independents: Robertson 147, Taylor 192 (7%) Scottish Pensioners Party: Dawson 271 (5%) Conservative:…

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Marf on the big Commons story on the final day of the Parliament

Marf on the big Commons story on the final day of the Parliament

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Whoever’s idea it was it was a mistake The basic fact is that you don’t launch moves like this unless you are going to win. I’ve never been a fan of Bercow but to use what amounted to procedural trickery flew in the face of the way the House operates. What’s clear is that he emerges stronger from this failed attempt. He’s now there as long as he wants. Surely the best thing would have been to have done this…

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A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

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Lord Ashcroft polls This is one of UKIP’s best chances to take a LAB seat We’ve talked a lot about the CON-UKIP battleground but not about the LAB-UKIP one. Certainly the focus of the purples has been on the former but that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities with the latter. One place I’m hearing positive words about is the party’s campaign in Dudley North. I don’t know whether this is based on polling but I think that it might…

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If the Tories can keep their losses to LAB down to fewer than 38 then they should come out with most seats

If the Tories can keep their losses to LAB down to fewer than 38 then they should come out with most seats

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How the fight is on a knife edge Given the political and betting importance of which party wins most seats I’ve been looking at the maths to try to get a broad figure of what would be a CON victory on seats or a CON defeat. I’ve made several assumptions that clearly will impact on the equation. In broad terms the gap between the main parties as we start the formal campaign is 46 seats. So if there was no…

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If Sky News is right a move to get rid of Bercow is sensational

If Sky News is right a move to get rid of Bercow is sensational

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The Government has reportedly tabled a motion to stop John Bercow's re-election as Speaker of the House of Commons pic.twitter.com/tuugM1lqQH — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 25, 2015 Speaker election rule change done under resolution giving Govt total control of Commons agenda for final days of Parlm't – well planned coup — Mark D'Arcy (@DArcyTiP) March 25, 2015 …but if other parties conclude Cons can't be trusted not to pull strokes like this, cd be long nights ahead for Con MPs…

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The Tories close the gap in Survation-Mirror poll to just 1%

The Tories close the gap in Survation-Mirror poll to just 1%

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The trend in Survation's GE15 polling pic.twitter.com/BkpyCWmSgD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 New Survation poll for Daily Mirror has LAB 1 ahead LAB 33% -1 CON 32% +3 UKIP 18% -1 LD 8% -1 GRN 4% nc SNP 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 All polls, it seems, moving to level-pegging or thereabouts Two things stand out with the Survation-Mirror poll that’s just been released. Firstly the Tories have almost closed the gap although, it should be noted, the…

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