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Month: March 2015

LAB regains YouGov lead and Newsnight index has gap down to 2 seats

LAB regains YouGov lead and Newsnight index has gap down to 2 seats

After last night level pegging LAB lead by one: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 @BBCNewsnight 's latest GE15 index pic.twitter.com/WeaN1h1LIT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 My guess is that the Newsnight change is largely down to the new ComRes Scotland poll which is a tad more positive for LAB than other surveys.

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

CON up 2 in London YouGov poll, LAB & LD up 1 – UKIP & GRN both down pic.twitter.com/l7YNd4Qi18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there. The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford…

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CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

CON retains 1% lead with TNS CON 33% (-) LAB 32% (-) UKIP 16%(-1) LD 8% (+1) GN 5% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 On range of measures Times Redbox YouGov polling finds significant improvements on last month for EdM pic.twitter.com/4gel4QUBKn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 seats markets moves up to 14. Was 9 9 on Sun. pic.twitter.com/xfW3JJ8B0c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The second morning of GE2015 TNS, with its new…

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How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

What will tomorrow’s polls show – UP or DOWN? The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going. Tomorrow the good Lord is providing us with eight more separate constituency polls with the usual 1,000 sample in each. The chart shows the movement in the swing in each wave of…

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Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

Details from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/XJsmUnMxwB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 There’ve been three published polls since the Sunday Times YouGov LAB 4% lead poll. ComRes had 4% CON lead last night, Populus had the parties level pegging this morning and now Lord Ashcroft has a 2% CON lead. So it is starting to look as though YouGov might have been an outlier. We’ll see what the firm’s latest poll has tonight. It is starting to look as though…

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The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

Via @montie The line up for Thursday night's debate pic.twitter.com/ttXLBB3ktU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 How do you create interesting betting market for 7 way debate? This from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/wl6zvGgjFM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 The line up on the stage was decided by lots being drawn this morning. It is hard to work out who has come out best. Farage has Clegg on his left and Miliband on his right though he’s some way…

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If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this…

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