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Month: February 2015

Tonight one poll has a 1% LAB lead – the other has them level-pegging

Tonight one poll has a 1% LAB lead – the other has them level-pegging

The battle is still on a knife-edge CON & LAB level-pegging in tonight's YouGov CON 34% LAB 34% LDEM 8% UKIP 14% GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2015 Opinium poll for Observer LAB 35 CON 34 LD 6 UKIP 14 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2015 The big message for the Tories as we go into the last two months and a bit is that they need to have emphatic leads across a range of pollsters to be…

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Marf on the murder of Boris Nemtsov and details of the pre-GE15 PB gathering

Marf on the murder of Boris Nemtsov and details of the pre-GE15 PB gathering

Date for your Diary March 17th at 7pm The next PB get-together will take place on Tuesday March 17th from 7pm at the Shooting Star in Middlesex Street. As the map below shows this is just round the corner from our normal venue, Dirty Dicks. We are hoping that this will be less crowded and noisy than the pre-Christmas bash. Thanks to Fat Steve for finding the new venue. There are also plans for overnight May 7/8 – details soon.

LAB’s just reignited pensions as a battleground

LAB’s just reignited pensions as a battleground

David Herdson says the tuition fees funding proposals could be skating on thin ice Elections are won on perceptions as much as realities: competence, trustworthiness, whether a person or party is ‘on my side’, and so on. It’s therefore brave of Labour to propose funding a cut in university tuition fees from taxes raised on pensions. In doing so, the unintended consequence of opening up a policy front on what ought to be a relatively strong policy subject for them…

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The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

There’s little doubt that one of the great successes that UKIP has had has been in engaging within the political process those who have never, or not recently, used their vote. The above breakdown is from the latest Survation South Thanet poll illustrates this well. Because of the way the firm presents its data we are able to quantify the non-voting element. A big question with non-2010 voting support is whether their backing can be relied on as much as…

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Marf on Jihadi John and the afternoon round-up

Marf on Jihadi John and the afternoon round-up

Marf with a poignant cartoon on Jihadi John pic.twitter.com/ZT1gNSLw6n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 LAB back in the lead with Populus CON 31 LAB 33 LD 9 UKIP 16 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Another week & another forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher Very tight pic.twitter.com/3Pi3aE54Zf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 A bit unfair on UKIP? Publicity stunt for "The Producers" at Margate – UKIP conference venue. Hot pants & swastikas pic.twitter.com/cXwRT8vZ1j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27,…

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If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

Jesse Norman – the old Etonian MP who led the 2012 CON backbench rebellion on House of Lords Reform pic.twitter.com/61siWbjrar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Did old-Etonian Jesse Norman cost his party the election? On July 11th 2012 David Cameron was seen to be having a furious row with his fellow old-Etonian, Jesse Norman, who had just led the successful backbench revolt against planned House of Lords reform. Cameron knew very clearly what this meant. The boundary changes,…

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TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

Based on UNS, the TNS Scotland poll would see the following seat totals. pic.twitter.com/wFMmMZ3BYr — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 26, 2015 Time appears to be running out for SLAB and Jim Murphy to avoid a shellacking in May. TNS’ second poll this year, brings them into line with all the others bar Panelbase who have substantial leads for the SNP. For those expecting differential turnout in Scotland to have an effect in May, “A majority of voters (61%) say they are…

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A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

Nigel Farage in Thanet South pic.twitter.com/dIt7eHFjCT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 %age probability of UKIP victory in target seats from @Election4castUK S Thanet 2% chance pic.twitter.com/jfsBLKJilp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 Betfair exchange UKIP South Thanet (Farage) a 60%chance pic.twitter.com/SrnGnR5oP6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 It was Tim Montgomerie in today’s Times who alerted me to the forecast for Farage’s South Thanet that has been produced by the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast – a…

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