Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

September 7th, 2014

Why I am waiting for TNS-BMRB

The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead.

Given that most of the latest Panelbase fieldwork coincided with YouGov’s latest YES lead poll then it is indeed surprising that it has no change.

    For from the same fieldwork period as YouGov in mid-August the Panelbase lead remains static while YouGov moves from a 13% NO lead to a 2% YES one

Clearly one of them can’t be right.

The YouGov move reminds me of the famous Cleggasm after the first leaders’ TV debate in April 2010. The poll above from April 20th was the peak and the 3% LD lead with a share of 34% put YouGov in a class of its own.

The only referendum polling of any sort that we have to compared with is what happened at the AV referendum in May 2011.

The poll I am looking forward to is TNS-BMRB which is due out on Wednesday. The firm, part of the WPP empire, bolts political questioning onto its regular face to face consumer polling and those sampled are not, like many of the online firms, members of a polling panel.

My Observer article on IndyRef polling is here.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble