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Month: August 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

Yes, we all know that the media is focusing on Clacton this evening but let us not forget that Clacton is not the only show in town! North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 52, Liberal Democrats 24, Independents 2 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2011): Liberal Democrats 870 (37%), Labour 770 (33%), Conservatives 419 (18%), Greens 273 (12%0 Candidates duly nominated: Duncan Crute (Con),…

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The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

Douglas Carswell, red hot favourite to win his seat, Clacton, for UKIP. See PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T pic.twitter.com/V01q41DqqX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 And will his defection encourage others? Back in 2005 Douglas Carswell was one of a select group of Tories who won seats from LAB. He took Harwich. Then, five years later in the new seat of Clacton, he held on thanks to a swing from LAB of 9.7%, The national swing was 5% which is a good indication…

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CON MP, Douglas Carswell, defects to UKIP AND is resigning to fight by-election

CON MP, Douglas Carswell, defects to UKIP AND is resigning to fight by-election

MP for Clacton Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Conservatives to #Ukip — Sky News Newsdesk (@SkyNewsBreak) August 28, 2014 The results from @DouglasCarswell Clacton at GE2010. Can he hold that for UKIP pic.twitter.com/5MVJA1CnbS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 At GE2010 Carswell enjoyed a swing of LAB to CON of 9.7% – which was one of the highest in UK. Suggests a big personal vote. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 CLACTON MP CARSWELL…

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The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

Fieldwork for the last published full #IndyRef poll was completed 13 days ago. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/A0bvLYzzdi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 Why are there so few Scottish polls? Over the past few days I’ve been repeatedly asked when the next full IndyRef poll will be published and unfortunately I have no idea. The last full poll was by YouGov when fieldwork finished on August 15th – that’s 13 days ago. In the same period we have had…

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PB Nighthawks is open

PB Nighthawks is open

Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) YouGov have updated their methodology.  YouGov have also launched a new polling innovation. And this is the first result of their new polling innovation. US poised to ask Britain to join…

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UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

CON-held seats are the primary focus Whenever kippers talk about their progress in 2014 they point first to their success in the May 22nd Euros. Coming top of the poll was a major breakthrough, helped by the unique closed regional list voting system. In the first past the post elections held on the same day it was a different story – dropping 6 points on national equivalent vote share on their 2013 performance and securing 3.8% of the seats. In…

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Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Interesting Ladbrokes http://t.co/tRoY887SzF new #IndyRef betting markets pic.twitter.com/ligF4ObYbk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2014 The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated One of the problems for those wanting to bet on NO in the September 18th Scottish Independence referendum is that prices are so poor. About the best you can get is 1/6 which means that to make a profit of £50 you have to risk £300. A far better wager has just…

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