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Month: July 2014

Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

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Clifton on Blackpool (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 501 (41%), UKIP 362 (30%), Conservatives 283 (23%), Liberal Democrats 33 (3%), Greens 25 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 139 (11%) Turnout: 23% (Grateful thanks to Blackpool Council for their publication of the result and vote shares) Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun on Doncaster (Lab Defence) Result: UKIP 1,203 (41%), Labour 1,109 (38% unchanged), Conservatives 479 (16% +2%), Greens 160 (5%) UKIP GAIN from Labour with a…

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Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Populus online poll

Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Populus online poll

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This is the lowest UKIP share since the firm’s methodology change in February What will really please the Tories is that, like ICM last week, the UKIP drop has been accompanied by a rise in the CON share, It holds out hope that the Tories could move into the lead even though LAB stays constant. The crazy thing about GE2015 is that it is really about two battles: CON versus UKIP to get the switchers back and LAB versus LD…

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Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his September conference in Doncaster

Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his September conference in Doncaster

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UKIP GAIN from LAB in EdM's backyard Edenthorpe on Doncaster UKIP 1,203 LAB 1,109 CON 479 GRN 160 EdM sits for Doncaster N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2014 Farage’s party gains council seat from LAB with 41% of vote in EdM’s Doncaster N backyard There are a lot of places in Yorkshire which spring to mind as good conference venues. Harrogate, Scarborough, York and Leeds would probably be the main choices but not, I’d suggest, Doncaster which is where the Ukip…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 24th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 24th 2014

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Clifton on Blackpool (Lab Defence) Last election to council (2011): Labour 27, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 12) Last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,090, 911 Conservatives 567, 475 Independent 221 Candidates duly nominated: Bruce Allen (Con), Gita Gordon (Lib Dem), Tina Rothery (Green), Spencer Shackleton (UKIP), Luke Taylor (Lab), Phillip Watt (TUSC) It has been said that to holiday in Blackpool, you should count on nothing being the same. It may be hot…

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July’s Issues Index has immigration and the economy down – but health, crime and the international situation all showing increases

July’s Issues Index has immigration and the economy down – but health, crime and the international situation all showing increases

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Immigration down 3% in @IpsosMORI Issues Index but still the main concen. Health up 3 & Crime up 4 pic.twitter.com/7pEci2lB9q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 Above is the top ten from the July Ipsos-MORI issues index which featured in the previous thread. The risers and and fallers are all there.

Concern about the economy continues its dramatic collapse – but that could mean it’ll be less of an issue at GE2015

Concern about the economy continues its dramatic collapse – but that could mean it’ll be less of an issue at GE2015

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The sharp & extraordinary decline of the economy as a key issue – @IpsosMORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/VpJtLoS1sb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 Don’t assume that voters do gratitude All the economic indicators in recent months have been positive for the coalition and this is picked up in the July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index where concern about the economy has continued its sharp and quite dramatic fall. This is the monthly polling that has been carried out in exactly the…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To all you lurkers, if you’re thinking Better the Devil You Know, nighthawks is Especially for You, it gives you a chance to delurk. I Should Be So Lucky if a few of you delurked. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant…

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For the first time UKIP move into the favourite slot in a Westminster seat

For the first time UKIP move into the favourite slot in a Westminster seat

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Ukip favourite to win S Thanet where it's said Farage will stand pic.twitter.com/3YAcDeUDY4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 South Thanet heading to be a great 3-way tussle I love Westminster seats battles where at least three parties are in with a shout. The betting on them can be very interesting and chances are that you’ll get longer than evens on the winner. South Thanet in Kent, won from LAB by pro-EU Tory, Laura Sandys, in May looks set…

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