If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion

June 25th, 2014

You can still get better than evens on Labour

At the last general election one of the most active constituency betting markets was on Brighton Pavillion where, as we all know, Caroline Lucas won through with a 31.3% vote share to become the Green party’s first MP. The result and vote changes are in the chart above.

This victory came after years of work in the area during which the Greens built up a very strong councillor base.

    The big question for GE15 is whether she can hold on and until now the bookies have made her favourite.

That might change following unconfirmed reports that the Greens carried out a private poll in the seat which shows that they are behind LAB by quite a margin.

The pollster is said to be ICM which carried out surveys for the party ahead of the historic victory in May 2010. I am being told that a new poll was carried out earlier in the year which had the Greens a long way behind.

The party shares being talked about are in the region of LAB 39% to GRN 23%.

The best chance that Caroline Lucas has is if she can persuade CON and LD voters that she is the one to support if they want to stop Labour winning.

I’ve not seen any data or had any confirmation but my source is credible enough for me to have had a punt on Labour at 11/10.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble