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Month: April 2014

YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

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Probably the most remarkable feature from the latest YouGov Euros poll is the split amongst the 60+ age group – featured in the chart above. As can be seen some 45% of those who expressed a voting intention said UKIP. We’ve always known that the purples have a greater appeal as you move up the age scale but this split took me by surprise. It looks as though there is something special about the Euros. For only 20% of this…

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The minor parties – A quiet consolidation?

The minor parties – A quiet consolidation?

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Election analysis by Corporeal The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline. Or at least it has been, the most recent opinion poll ratings suggest that this trend will be broken with a sharp jump upwards (I’ve used…

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Suddenly a by-election possibility in CON-held Newark comes into the frame. A chance for UKIP or LAB gain?

Suddenly a by-election possibility in CON-held Newark comes into the frame. A chance for UKIP or LAB gain?

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After a spate of boring LAB heartland contests this could be mega The Sunday Times is reporting this morning that the CON MP for Newark, Patrick Mercer could be on the point of quitting which would force a by-election over a cash for questions scandal. The story states that “the Commons standards committee will meet on Tuesday to ban him from parliament for six months. The MP for Newark, a winnable seat for UKIP, has told friends that if he…

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Tonight’s Opinium online poll for the Observer sees the gap getting closer.

Tonight’s Opinium online poll for the Observer sees the gap getting closer.

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LAB 34-2: CON 32+2: LD7=: UKIP 18= After yesterday’s Populus poll which had both CON and LAB on 35% each the latest online poll from Opinium for the Observer sees a change from a 6% lead to a 2% one in the past fortnight. This is all within the standard margin of error and the usual caveats apply. Opinium is unusual in that it is the only online pollster that doesn’t past vote weight or use some other mechanism to…

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The House of Lords: UKIP’s backdoor into Westminster

The House of Lords: UKIP’s backdoor into Westminster

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GE2015 could mark the end of peerage pensions for the Lib Dems If the Commons was once considered “The best Club in London” then the Lords must these days be the best retirement home.  The nature of the role is such that working peerages tend to be awarded to those whose first career has either ended entirely or is at least winding down – so allowing them the time to work in the Upper House, as well as having provided…

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The May 22nd Euro Elections look set to be a good test for internet polling against traditional phone surveys

The May 22nd Euro Elections look set to be a good test for internet polling against traditional phone surveys

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Which firm/form of polling will get its closest? Of the 2014 polls the only ones not to be carried out online are the two from ICM which has been showing a very different picture – notably UKIP has been third in each case. TNS-BMRB operates a sort of hybrid system – interviewers hand over a computer for the interviewee to fill in. There have long been complaints from purple backers about the way the phone polls seem to mark them…

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