Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

March 31st, 2014

CON has most positive votes and the fewest tactical ones

The chart above is based on the finding new form of questioning which has just been tested by Opinium for its latest Observer poll.

After the main voting intention question the firm asked “You said that you would vote [Party] if an election were held tomorrow. Would you say that this is because you’d want to vote for [Party] or because you’d want to vote against someone else?”

For those who indicated that there choice was wholly or partly negative this was followed by a second question “You said that you’d vote [Party] mainly/partly to vote against someone else. Who would you want to vote against?”

I find this an interesting approach which gives us a sense of the motivations of many electors. I’d have preferred it if the phrases “in your constituency” could have been included because as the Ashcroft marginals polling has found getting the sample to focus on what they are doing in their specific seats can change voting intentions.

I’ve not looked at the details of which party people would be voting against because the sub-sample sizes are too small to come to meaningful conclusions. But the vast bulk of the tactical LAB votes are against the Tories. No surprise there.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble