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Month: February 2014

Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

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It’s very hard to forecast a CON majority Since before Christmas I’ve been maintaining an average of the four main party shares from the 5 YouGov polls that appear every week. This enables us to follow trends much better than looking at individual polls from the firm which like all surveys can sometimes be affected by sampling issues. The big message looking at the charts above is how constant the LAB figure has been within a range over the two…

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The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules

The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules

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2010 debate pic.twitter.com/CSoY1dvIbZ — PolPics (@PolPics) February 22, 2014 To start with the relatively easy bit: any debates taking place within the election period would be subject to OFCOM’s broadcasting code. Well mostly. In the interests of full accuracy this part of the code (primarily section 6) “does not apply to BBC services funded by the licence fee, which are regulated on these matters by the BBC trust”. Since any debates are likely to be (as last time) a joint effort…

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Who’ll finish fourth?

Who’ll finish fourth?

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David Herdson on the battle for the minor European election placings Fourth is, according to Olympic pundits, the cruellest finishing position.  I don’t buy it.  Who’d rather finish fifth or sixth than fourth, or, looking at it the other way, who enters a competition to finish third?  Higher is better, first is best and last is worst. Understandably, most of the coverage of the European elections has focussed on the front of the field: who’ll take first place, where Labour…

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What are defined as major parties: Ofcom rules make it quite difficult to exclude Nick Clegg from GE2015 TV debates

What are defined as major parties: Ofcom rules make it quite difficult to exclude Nick Clegg from GE2015 TV debates

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The Ofcom list of "major parties" which makes it difficult to exclude Clegg from TV debates pic.twitter.com/ffTUd6GRMw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2014 My guess is that in the coming months we are going to hear a lot about the Ofcom rules which govern broadcasting election coverage in the UK. The current situation is set out in the revised rules that were published in March last year. Those parties defined as “major” have a special status when it comes…

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So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

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Ladbrokes open debate betting to be settled on a voodoo poll!! Well done to Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage for agreeing to a debate ahead of the European elections. This will certainly add fizz to the Euro Elections and could boost turnout beyond the 35% of last time. Given Nick Clegg’s position and his party’s numbers in the polls the challenge was a smart move and will help the LDs in its efforts to position itself as the party of…

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Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

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John Kerry 2016 pic.twitter.com/hktNEskffM — PolPics (@PolPics) February 19, 2014 He could be ideally placed if his Middle East peace plan succeeds The first thing I did on my return last night from an intensive tour of Israel and Palestine was to place a bet at 50/1 with Ladbrokes on the defeated 2004 presidential candidate, John Kerry, for the Democratic party nomination in the 2016 White House race. Alas the bookie has now cut the price to 25/1 though you…

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Local By-Election Results : February 20th 2014

Local By-Election Results : February 20th 2014

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Canton on Cardiff (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 1,201 (42% -9%), Plaid 972 (34% +14%), Con 381 (13% +2%), Green 148 (5% -9%), TUSC 101 (4% +3%), Lib Dem 80 (3% +1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 229 (8%) on a swing from Lab to Plaid of 11.5% Birstall, Wanlip on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result: Lib Dem 508 (40%), Con 419 (33%), Lab 355 (28%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 89 (7%)

Local By-Election Preview : February 20th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : February 20th 2014

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  Canton on Cardiff (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservative 7, Independents 3, Plaid Cymru 2, Heath Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 17) Result of last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 2,230, 2,130, 2,128 (51%) Plaid Cymru 910, 837, 824 (20%) Greens 730, 564, 503 (14%) Conservatives 505, 468, 426 (11%) Liberal Democrats 118, 98, 84 (2%) Socialist Labour Party 106 (1%) Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 90 (1%)…

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