On this day exactly two years ago YouGov had CON in the lead on 40pc

February 28th, 2014

How it looked for the blues before the rise of UKIP & Osborne’s March 2012 budget

At the end of February 2012 the Tories were still getting the benefit from the after-glow of what became known as the “Veto-gasm” – the polling boost that followed from David Cameron’s famous Brussels veto.

The positive mood was seen in the betting. In mid-January 2012 the Betfair price on a CON overall majority tightened to a 41% chance while Labour was rated at 28%. Things looked good.

Then we had March budget which seemed to produce one problem after another and within weeks the Tory poll position slumped.

This was the prelude to the the UKIP surge which continues to have a major impact on the political environment.

Labour edged up into the 40s but have edged back a touch and now with YouGov remain pretty solidly on 39% or thereabouts. The LDs continue to poll in the 8% – 10% range.

The most interesting feature in the chart above can be seen in the change tab. That tells the story of the past two years.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble