Based on YouGov’s first three polls this week the gap is getting narrower

January 30th, 2014

The latest YouGov/Sun daily poll, published last night, has LAB 38/CON 35/LD 10/UKIP 11 – so a continuation of what we’ve been seeing all week.

For my chart above I’ve calculated a provisional weekly average based on the first 3 polls and as is clear there is a narrowing. The question is whether this is down to normal margin or error, which it could well be, or are we seeing real change?

We should get another YouGov tonight and, of course, the regular survey for the Sunday Times at the weekend.

In all these matters we need to see other pollsters. The Monday Populus poll had LAB on 40% with a 7 point lead. The next one from the firm is due tomorrow. Will that also be pointing to change?

Also coming up this weekend is Opinium for the Observer which is the only online polling not to have any past vote or similar political weighting. In the past year it has tended to show much higher UKIP shares and lower CON ones.

So it’s too early to come to firm conclusions but things could be getting interesting.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble