What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

December 31st, 2013

They are more enthusiastic about EdM than existing LAB voters

On one of the threads yesterday there were a number of questions asking what is known about the group of voters who could put a CON majority beyond reach – 2010 LD voters who now say they will go Labour.

The problem is that almost all the polling data we have doesn’t show this segment separately – so while it is possible to extrapolate we cannot get reliable numbers.

The only exception I can find is a 20,022 sized sample from a Lord Ashcroft poll that was published in March. This set out the data I’ve been looking for and the huge overall sample means that the sub-samples are of sufficient size for us to have more confidence. In this case the total of 2010 Lib Dems polled was 3,781.

Although this data might be old the main picture in the national polls is that the percentage of 2010 LDs now saying LAB has remained reasonably solid.

Nearly 4 out of 5 of them say they won’t switch parties

LD>LAB switchers are the most likely of all groups to turn out to vote

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004