Archive for November, 2013


How WH2012 would have finished up if only white men had voted

Thursday, November 28th, 2013

We’d probably get a similar pattern in the UK

I find the chart above absolutely fascinating although not surprising.

In the US, of course, the Democratic party colour is blue and the Republican one red. So the message is that it would be President Romney now if the franchise has been what it was before the 15th Amendment, restricted to white men.

Given what we know of the way ethnic minorities and women vote in the UK I guess we’d have had a similar, but not so pronounced, and pattern in the UK at GE2010. Certainly the Tories would have come home with a reasonable working majority.

Currently we see that UKIP tends to attract more support from men than women and although I’ve not seen a breakdown I assume that it has made significantly less progress with ethnic minorities.

David Cameron, to give him his due, made big efforts the early days of his leadership to bring on more women and non-white candidates. This wasn’t entirely popular with his party but he clearly saw the need for change.

The US chart is a reminder that societies evolve and political parties need to adapt.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004


PB Nighthawks is now open

Wednesday, November 27th, 2013

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. Nighthawks gives me the opportunity to say Let Me Entertain you with my round up of links.

To you lurkers, why not delurk? You’ll have No Regrets if you delurk, you’ll experience a great Freedom from lurking, when you Delurk.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)

  1. PMQs: Bad Jokes, ‘Crap’, ‘Hashtag’ And A Fake Moustache
  2. PMQs Verdict: Are we all Marxists now?
  3. PMQ review: Cameron wriggles free from Miliband’s intellectual attack
  4. Spanish PM: Independent Scotland would be out of the EU. Scotland would be kicked out of the European Union if it voted for independence, the Spanish Prime Minister has said in a devastating blow to Alex Salmond’s claims membership would be seamless.
  5. English, Welsh and Northern Irish ‘would need to approve Scottish currency union in second referendum’
  6. If I had the vote I’d grab the chance of Scottish independence
  7. Labour must answer the SNP with more than a slogan. Unless Ed Miliband defines what One Nation means, the nationalists could win a victory that will leave him paralysed
  8. Scotland’s Future: A Braveheart whose mum still does the laundry
  9. Scotland will face severest cuts in political history if they reject independence
  10. Could Susan Boyle write a new Scottish national anthem? Alex Salmond’s independence manifesto is oddly quiet on what will happen if Scotland drops God Save the Queen. Could Calvin Harris or Emeli Sandé pen a new tune? We look at some contenders
  11. The march of time has outpaced the Tory modernisers
  12. John Bercow bids to upgrade Parliament to ‘version 2.0’. Commons Speaker John Bercow has launched a special commission on “digital democracy”, saying it could pave the way for online voting and “e-dialogue” between MPs and constituents.
  13. ‘The 35 per cent strategy is a myth’
  14. The real reason why the Co-op saga is bad news for Labour
  15. Nick Clegg’s scapegoating of immigrants is his most unforgiveable Tory collaboration yet. Historians of the future may say the Lib Dem did as well as he could have – nonsense
  16. It’s “Immigration Hysteria Day”. Again. Here’s how Lib Dems need to respond
  17. On EU migrants, David Cameron is making promises he can’t keep. Sadly for all of us, the Prime Minister does not have the guts to do what is necessary, says Nigel Farage.
  18. Andrew Mitchell loses appeal over £500k Plebgate libel case fees
  19. Bedroom tax: stress and struggle as benefits clawback hits home. Claimants explain how the policy has forced changes, from heating cutbacks to fruitless hunts for smaller homes
  20. House prices outside South East still at pre-2008 levels
  21. Most scientists believe in man-made global warming. Here’s a new reason why they may be wrong
  22. Boris on Maggie: She saved us from “an ecstasy of uselessness”
  23. BBC must be ‘less British’ about telling public service is worth the licence fee, says Lord Hall. The BBC must be “less British” and “get aggressive” about convincing the nation it is value for money, director-general Lord Hall argues
  24. ‘The Bent Bullet: JFK and the Mutant Conspiracy’
  25. Hollywood film producer confirms he was Israeli spy. The Producer of “Pretty Woman,” “Fight Club” and “L.A. Confidential” has finally come forth with a stunning admission – for years he served as an Israeli spy, buying arms on its behalf and boosting its alleged nuclear program.
  26. Silvio Berlusconi Banned From Parliament - Italy’s embattled former PM loses his seat in parliament – and his constitutional protection from prosecution.
  27. Venn diagrams for our times: Is Tony Blair a Catholic? 
  28. Can you be Gay and be a Tory?
  29. Do gay men have a crap taste in music?
  30. What did we learn from the Sherlock series 3 trailer?
  31. The 35 Greatest Easter Eggs From The “Doctor Who” 50th Anniversary



Miliband is still odds-on to become next PM

Wednesday, November 27th, 2013

17 months left to go before GE2015

I don’t think any of these are a good bet at this stage. There’s a lot of water to run under the bridge.

The only certainty is that the date in the fixed term parliament act for the next general election is May 7th 2015. It’s possible that the coalition could collapse before then creating the conditions for an earlier general election.

Meanwhile with every month that goes by with the polls staying as they Ed gets a bit closer to Number 10.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004


UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd

Wednesday, November 27th, 2013

The first of 8 seat specific surveys funded by a UKIP donor

Today marks the start of a new GE2015 polling series funded by UKIP donor, Alan Bown.

These will be published in the coming weeks and will look at LAB-CON marginals where UKIP may be a factor in the 2015 general election.

    These are the only ­ constituency specific polls to be published so far during this election cycle (the Ashcroft marginals polling combined constituencies which were not broken out individually).

The Thanet South survey is being released now because the seat has had a lot of attention with the incumbent CON MP saying she’ll step down at GE2015 and the reported interest of Nigel Farage.

As well as normal voting intention questions, Survation included key questions such as “imagine for a moment that UKIP were not standing in your constituency; which other party would you then vote for” to examine where UKIP votes could be re-distributed if UKIP were not a factor.

Also included, the “main reason for wanting to vote for that party” – looking within each parties for voting motivation – are UKIP voters simply protesting?

Finally, Survation asked UKIP voters the “Ed Miliband Prime Minister” question – whether a voter would rather vote UKIP than Conservative, even if that meant Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister or would they vote instead Conservative in order to stop Ed Miliband from becoming Prime Minister.

Constituency polling is extremely challenging for the pollster and is very expensive to carry out. Generally sample sizes are small because the overall pool is not that large.

Overall the picture doesn’t look good for the Tories. Not only are they in third place the other findings suggest that the idea that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday isn’t really supported.

Ladbrokes have LAB in Thanet South at 7/2 which looks like a fantastic bet.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004


CONHome’s Harry Phibbs ups the stakes in our wager on the GE2015 outcome

Tuesday, November 26th, 2013




On the Betfair exchange punters are rating a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 18.9pc

Tuesday, November 26th, 2013

But the Bank of England remains the lender of last resort


Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting to stop LAB

Tuesday, November 26th, 2013

The stage is set surely for Nigel Farage to become an MP

Big GE2015 news has been the announcement by Thanet South MP, Laura Sandys, that she’s going to stand down at the general election.

She won the seat from LAB in 2010 and, as the chart shows, had a pretty comfortable majority. Add on the expected first time incumbency bonus and it looked relatively safe. That’s all changed with her announcement.

Nigel Farage had already indicated that the seat was near the top of his short-list of places where he could try to win a Westminster seat.

    Given the success that UKIP had in the county elections there in May a Farage campaign would surely have a pretty powerful tactical message for CON voters.

    We are the only party capable of blocking LAB here

You can see that information on the bar charts on the leaflets already.

What makes all the difference here is that Laura Sandys is not re-standing. I had dealings with her a few years ago and she’s very impressive. She’ll be a big loss.

The UKIP campaign there will be strengthened by the high profile that Farage is likely to enjoy during the election.

THe Ladbrokes 3/1 on UKIP winning here is probably worth a punt as are bets on UKIP winning at least one seat. There’s value as well in Labour taking the seat at 4/1.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004


The Tories get 3pc closer in the ComRes phone poll for the Indy

Monday, November 25th, 2013

Most see the blues as being for the rich

The monthly phone poll by ComRes for the Indy is just out and has the Tories up 4 on the very low 28% recorded in October. This move is greater than the margin of error .

    But CON strategists might be concerned that the move back to the Tories has not been at the expense of Labour which also moves up.

To have any chance of coming out with most seats Cameron’s party has to be ahead of LAB and there is clearly some way to go.

In other questions a majority of those polled said they believed that the Conservative Party only represents the interests of the rich.

This comes comes after Nick Boles, the Planning Minister and an ally of David Cameron, warned last week that “the single biggest problem the Conservative Party faces is being seen as the party of the rich.” Some 51% agree with the statement that “the Conservative Party only represents the interests of the rich,” while 42% disagreed.

This perception is shared by 18% of those who voted Tory in 2010 agree as do 10% of current CON supporters. Women (54%) are more likely to agree than men (47%).

According to ComRes, the public do not trust either David Cameron or Ed Miliband to protect the NHS. The Labour leader (33%) is trusted by slightly more people than the Prime Minister (30%). Some 56% do not trust EdM on the issue, giving him a net rating of minus 23%. Some 61% do not trust Dave, making his net rating minus 31%.

Attempts by ministers to blame Labour for the problems in the NHS appear to have failed. Asked whether the present Government has a better record on the NHS than the previous Labour Government, 28% agree but 57% disagree.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004