LAB has no worries about Tories returning to the fold because virtually no 2010 CON voters have switched

September 13th, 2013

Four party politics renders historical precedents obsolete

So many theories are being put forward about the next general election based on what’s happened in the past before the era of four party politics. The rise of UKIP, I’d suggest, makes this redundant. There are no valid precedents.

A common one is that voters will swing back to the main governing party from LAB because that’s what’s happened at previous elections. Only problem is that the move away from the Tories has not been to LAB but to UKIP.

    For the most extraordinary element of current polling is that so few 2010 CON voters are recorded as having actually moved to LAB as the chart above demonstrates.

Within the latest Ipsos-MORI poll just four 2010 CON voters out of an overall sample of 1,000 now say that they will be voting EdM’s party.

Ahead of previous elections this far out the proportion of main party switchers has been substantially higher and this group have represented a good target for the governing party to try to rope in again.

Labour’s boost in the polls since GE2010 has been mostly down to Lib Dem switchers. Tory losses have been mainly down to switching to UKIP.

The two battles at next election the next election will be CON-UKIP to get the purple switchers back and LAB-LD where the red team objective is to retain those yellows who have already moved.

Thus even if all the CON>UKIP switchers return any blue hopes are reliant on 2010 LDs also going back to their allegiance.

To have a swing-back to the main governing party needs voters who have switched in the first place. That simply has not happened.

  • NOTE that an earlier version of this post was published prematurely last night and was taken down after a short period

    Mike Smithson

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