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Month: July 2013

The Tories get to within 3 percent in tonight’s YouGov poll

The Tories get to within 3 percent in tonight’s YouGov poll

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LAB lead down to just 3% in latest YouGov/Sun poll Lab 38 Con 35 LD 11 UKIP 10. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013 Tonight's 3% LAB YouGov lead is the smallest since March 2012 – before Osborne's budget — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013 Are the Tories closing in on Labour in tonight's polling? No way of knowing if your methodology arbitrarily reduces UKIP support… — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 22, 2013 According to Electoral Calculus…

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Even if the Tories clawed back all of their 2010 voters who’ve switched to LAB the most they’d put on is less than 2pc

Even if the Tories clawed back all of their 2010 voters who’ve switched to LAB the most they’d put on is less than 2pc

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Why the potential for swingback is so limited There’s a new Populus online poll out – the third in just eight days – and all the fieldwork took place over the weekend. The figures with changes on Friday’s poll are LAB 39 (↔); CON 32 (↑1); LD 12 (↔); UKIP 9 (↓1). What’s extraordinary about GE2015 voting intention polling is how little crossover there has been between the two main parties since GE2010. Just look at the chart above showing…

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Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015 PaddyPower open betting on which seat he’ll choose

Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015 PaddyPower open betting on which seat he’ll choose

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Interesting UKIP betting market from PaddyPower – which constituency will Nigel Farage stand in at #GE2015? pic.twitter.com/z3UpJY0TZn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013 Is Eastleigh where he’ll try to get into Westminster? By far the most recognised UKIP politician is the leader, Nigel Farage, and clearly he’s the one who you’d think would have the best chance of becoming an MP at GE2015. The party’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat was at Eastleigh in February when they…

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An improving economy: The biggest threat to the future of the UK?

An improving economy: The biggest threat to the future of the UK?

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If you subscribe to the theory that the next election will be largely determined by the performance of the economy, then 2013 has been interesting, at the start of the year, the main economic news was whether we would avoid a triple dip recession. A few months ago, not only did we avoid the triple dip, but it turns out the double dip didn’t happen either, and a few weeks ago, the cherry on the parfait was that the IMF upgrades…

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The polling on the week’s battles of LAB’s custodianship of the NHS, Crosby and the Tories and plain cigarette packaging

The polling on the week’s battles of LAB’s custodianship of the NHS, Crosby and the Tories and plain cigarette packaging

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Just 18% tell YouGov that it is acceptable for Crosby to be advising Tories while working for commercial clients pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 Just 19% tell tell YouGov that last LAB government most to blame for NHS failings found in Keighley report pic.twitter.com/6rotB8qxKu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 YouGov party trusted to deal with NHS CON 19 LAB 29 LD 5 None of them 35 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 And today’s YouGov voting figures Latest…

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Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

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Latest Betfair GE2015 overall majority betting based on last trades pic.twitter.com/qECivvD4iU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2013 But Ed is odds-on favourite to be next PM Ed Miliband 54.5% favourite on Betfair for next PM based on last trade See top 8 pic.twitter.com/UDouJXYYr6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2013

Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

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Local factors could mean they’ll be as hard to shift as ever The biggest and longest-lasting movement in opinion polling since the 2010 general election has been the loss of at least half of the Lib Dem vote, most of which has gone to Labour.  By contrast, despite the spending restraint and what at times has been a strained relationship between the Conservatives and their traditional supporters, the last YouGov poll showed only a 1% direct net swing from Con…

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