Archive for July, 2013


There are almost no changes at the top in the July Ipsos-MORI Index

Thursday, July 25th, 2013

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Concern about the NHS remains stable

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Concern about the EU/Europe drops


The economy still the big issue but not quite as big as it was

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Attention Mark Carney: Marf has some further suggestions for who should be on future banknotes

Thursday, July 25th, 2013

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    How a minor change to the electoral system could stop Farage’s party from topping the polls in next year’s Euro elections?

    Thursday, July 25th, 2013

    Simply switch from the closed to an open list voting system

    Online Tramadol Store There’s an intriguing move developing that could lead to a change in the way the EU elections are carried out resulting in an electoral system that’s less UKIP friendly.

    follow site A report just out from the LSE for the Electoral Reform Society suggests that UKIP’s chances in next year’s EU elections could be seriously undermined if an “open list” voting system was used rather than, as at the moment, the “closed list” one.

    Order Tramadol Online Legally The headline numbers from the document are in the chart above showing how such a change would benefit the Tories most at the expense of Farage’s party.

    Tramadol Online Overnight Cod The essential difference between the two approaches is that voters select individual candidates to vote for rather than simply allocating their vote to a party list which was introduced by Labour for the 1999 Euro elections. Using a sample of 8,000 the LSE team worked with YouGov to test out the impact of the two systems. The detail of their methodology can be found here which is well worth looking at.

    watch This is the report’s conclusion:-

    go site “.. Buy Cheap Tramadol Online With Mastercard Our experiment shows that if the electoral system for the European elections in Britain allowed for within-party competition, support for UKIP would decrease, and the overall vote share for the Conservative party would increase. The magnitude of this effect is large, and would have real consequences for the distribution of British seats in the European Parliament.

    click Thinking more broadly, there are two reasons to expect voting behaviour to differ under different ballot types. First, open-ballots encourage candidates to compete for votes by increasing their constituency work, delivering infrastructure projects, and building a strong local profile. This is because candidates are aware that through these activities they can build their own ‘personal vote’ on the open-list, which improves their election prospects vis-à-vis their co-partisans. The incentives to do this are much lower in the closed-list system (where no personal vote is possible), and we should therefore expect different voting outcomes to the extent that candidates engage in such activities. This phenomenon has been widely studied in the political science literature..” The Open-list systems is used in EU Parliament elections in 18 of the 28 member nations and it is being said that a change could be brought in for the 2014 elections if the coalition wanted.

      go On the face of it voting for individuals rather than just a party appears more democratic and would make individual MEPs more accountable.

    Purchase Tramadol With Mastercard Would the government bring in such a change? Hard to say but based on this research it has attractions for all three main parties.

    If it happened then my 10/1 bet that the Tories will win most votes would look like a possible winner.

    Mike Smithson

    source site For the latest polling and political betting news


    Night hawks is now open

    Wednesday, July 24th, 2013


    Home of the web’s best political conversation

    If you’ve been working Nine to Five, or longer, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

    If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk tonight.

    The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

    1. Michael Gove ‘convinced’ of Conservative victory in 2015 election
    2. George Osborne accused of bowing to City pressure
    3. Anthony Weiner and his weiner are back in the news (Warning, this story contains words that may set off Dave’s porn filter)
    4. Claire Perry should have remembered David Cameron’s maxim about twitter. 
    5. Nadine Dorries repays £3,000 travel expenses, Parliamentary standards watchdog finds Tory MP’s claims for trips between London and her constituency ‘wrongfully made’
    6. Black mark for Labour on primary school places
    7. Ed Miliband reforms will boost union influence, says Unite leader
    8. Ed Miliband’s trade union reforms are essential to building a fairer society
    9. To emulate Blair, Ed Miliband will have to stop imitating him/ Labour’s leader is brave and principled – but falls down as a future prime minister in the public projection of personality

    10. Cameron’s empty gesture could spark a British rebirth, The EU referendum gives us the chance to re-emerge as a global trading nation
    11. The Taliban are like Eurosceptics says Tory MEP
    12. The Taliban are like the Bank of England says Vince Cable
    13. By giving a platform to climate change sceptics, the BBC is misleading the public
    14. Oxfam makes urgent appeal after ‘tough’ year as income falls by £18m
    15. Alex Salmond criticised over North Sea oil claims
    16. Just 23% of Americans under 35 said they considered themselves Republicans, compared with 50% who see themselves as Democrats.
    17. Transport department say 20% of rail commuters forced to stand in rush hour, Passengers on some peak services travelling on trains carrying 60% more people than they were designed to hold
    18. HS2 high-speed rail challenge rejected by court of appeal
    19. The Royal Baby Is Named George Alexander Louis, But Who Was He Named After?
    20. Jane Austen to be face of the Bank of England £10 note
    21. Alan Turing to be on a banknote?
    22. Vegetable crime wave: It’s the phantom cucumber dropper of old London Town
    23. A seminal 80s 90s pop song meets the movies.
    24. The Australian Cricket team have hit rock bottom, even the German cricket team thinks they can beat the Aussies.




    The Marf Royal Baby series – This afternoon’s instalment

    Wednesday, July 24th, 2013

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    The NHS is to the Tories what immigration is to Labour – a policy area they can’t win. Better to move on

    Wednesday, July 24th, 2013

    The best strategy is to steer the debate on to areas of strength

    A week, as Harold Wilson used to say, is a long in politics and just seven days ago the Tories felt they were on to a winner with the concerted attacks on a Labour’s custodianship of the NHS when they were in power.

    Whether it was the right thing for the Tories to do is one thing but there’s little doubt that seeing the main opposition party on the defensive on a policy area that they’ve always made their own sent CON MPs off in good heart as they left for their summer recess. But was this politically the right thing to do and should this aggressive approach be repeated when hostilities resume in September?

      In essence is the Lynton Crosby strategy right?

    The polling at the weekend on the aftermath of the Keogh report found barely one in five blaming Labour for what had gone on which must have been a disappointment to the blues but not really surprising given how well as Labour continues to be regarded.

    To my mind the NHS is to the Tories like immigration is to Labour – a policy area where whatever they do or say they can’t win. Better to move the debate onto areas of strength which I believe is what they’ll now do.

    Mike Smithson


    Marf on the speculation about the name

    Tuesday, July 23rd, 2013

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    LAB lead amongst Unite members jumps 14 to 26 percent

    Tuesday, July 23rd, 2013

    There’s a new Michael Ashcroft poll of Unite members covering voting intention and issues associated with union funding.

    Like other Ashcroft polls we don’t know the pollster but my guess is that it is YouGov which built up a reasonable size base of union members for its leadership polling in 2007 and 2010.

    The voting intention shares, seen above, are really what you’d expect with LAB moving up at the LDs expense and UKIP eating into the Tory vote.

    One third of members said they didn’t know whether they contributed to Unite’s political fund. 37% said they did, and 30% had opted out.Most Unite members (57%) preferred an opt-in system for the political fund; only 31% supported the current opt-out system.

    Only 30% said they would contribute to the political fund under an opt-in system; 53% said they would not. 17% were undecided.12% said they would pay to join the Labour Party as an individual member if contributors to the political fund were no longer affiliated automatically. 73% said they would not do so.

    46% of Unite members disagreed with the decision to donate nearly £12 million to Labour since the 2010 election; 43% agreed.

    Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news