The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best

July 29th, 2013

The incumbency experience for the yellows at GE2010

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enter There’s been some discussion over the weekend about the impact of incumbency and how it can help the parties achieve better outcomes in terms of seats won than the uniform swing might suggest. In a post on Saturday I looked at the GE2010 experience of the Tories and Labour. Today’s it’s the turn of the Lib Dems and the chart above shows how it performed on average in different types of seats that it was defending.

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´╗┐Tramadol Order Overnight As can be seen the party did far worse in those seats where the candidate was new saw an average vote loss compared with GE2005 of 4.7%. Incumbents MPs standing again did better seeing on average a slight improvement.

Tramadol Legal To Buy But the biggest change was for those who were defending their seat for the first time seeing an average increase in vote share of 3.1%.
    Online Rx Tramadol So the spread the yellows was getting on for four time as big as for the blues and reds.

go As well as the personal element of an incumbent being better known it’s also very likely that organisational strengths are much greater where you have a sitting MP.
  • The chart above is based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and looks at the impact of incumbency at the 2010 general election.

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