Exactly two years to the day after the AV referendum this is how Rallings and Thrasher project GE2015

May 5th, 2013

The chart is based on Rallings & Thrasher data for today’s Sunday Times which has the pair’s own national equivalent vote share projections based on their detailed analysis of the outcome on Thursday. This has CON 26%, LAB 29%, LD 13%, Ukip 22%

The numbers are different from the one’s published on Friday by the BBC and SkyNews because they are based on a different calculation.

Two things stand out: the harsh fact for Ukip that by having a vote that’s more evenly spread across the country then they would not win any MPs; and the ability of the LDs to come away from what was a drubbing in vote shares with a projected loss at GE2015 of just seven seats.

    As has been said strongly over the past two days the first past the post voting system most benefits parties whose spread of support is uneven – the more uneven the better.

Since Friday both Labour and the LDs have been pointing out that the results from the places that matter for GE2015, the battlegrounds, were much more positive for them than the national vote shares might indicate.

Clearly much can happen in the two years and two days before GE2015. Ukip and the Tories could reach some sort of accommodation; the purples could focus on a few key targets at the expense of everything else; the economy could start to look better with consequential benefits for the blues and so on.

But one thing’s for sure – the fact that GE2015 will be held with FPTP will penalise the purples and help the reds and the yellows.

Mike Smithson

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