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Month: April 2013

Into unknown territory with Ukip – just how much will Farage’s party impact on next week’s outcomes?

Into unknown territory with Ukip – just how much will Farage’s party impact on next week’s outcomes?

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Prof Colin Rallings talking about the Ukip factor at today’s briefing on next week’s local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013 Chart from Prof John Curtice at today’s local elections briefing showing how the Tories are being most hit by Ukip twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013 Today I’ve been at the annual briefing organised by the Political Studies Association on the May local elections. On the panel were Professor John Curtice from Strathclyde and…

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REMINDER: The CON poll deficit maybe getting smaller but they need to be well ahead on votes just to be level-pegging on seats

REMINDER: The CON poll deficit maybe getting smaller but they need to be well ahead on votes just to be level-pegging on seats

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General Election May 6th 2010 CON LAB Average electorate of seats won 72,435 68,612 Average turnout in seats won 68.4% 61.1% Average total votes in seat won 49,436 41,842 Seats won with small majorities 60 81 Votes in seats where party was third 28.4% 16.6% Much of the so-called bias is down to different voting patterns Yet again this morning the YouGov daily snapshot has the LAB lead at 7% adding further to a mood of confidence in parts of…

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The 5-6 pence drop in the price of a litre could be contributing to the slightly better CON position

The 5-6 pence drop in the price of a litre could be contributing to the slightly better CON position

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A factor that might be helping the coalition and particularly the Tories is the price drop we’ve seen in the cost of petrol and diesel at the pumps. My car’s a diesel and a couple of weeks ago I paid £1.459 for litre. That’s now dropped to below £1.40 and the cost of a full tank was down about £3. This is much more important outside the big conurbations because the car plays a much bigger part for most people…

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I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

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It’s extremely rare for me to oppose a statement made on PB.com by Mike Smithson but his suggestion that the United Kingdom should have paid political adverts fills me with absolute dread. Why? Well, call it bitter experience but having an interest in elections that use the FPTP method of election, I have seen adverts for political candidates that would make your hair curl from that home of the brave and land of the free, the United States and having…

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Let’s end the nonsense of sterile PPBs and have proper paid for TV political ads

Let’s end the nonsense of sterile PPBs and have proper paid for TV political ads

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This is the way to boost turnout and engage the electorate Yesterday the UK won a case in the European Court of Human Rights to continue the blocking of US-style political advertising on British TV. By the narrowest of margins the court decided by 9 to 8 that the UK’s blanket ban does not breach free speech. Right from the beginning of commercial TV in the UK nearly 60 years ago political advertisements have been banned. The result is that…

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S. Shields Ukip share – I’m taking a punt at 6/1 that it’ll be 30-40%

S. Shields Ukip share – I’m taking a punt at 6/1 that it’ll be 30-40%

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Ladbrokes has a new market up on what will be the UKIP vote share be in the S.Shields byelection. 0-10% 6/1 10- 20 7/4 20-30 5/4 30-40 6/1 40+ 20/1 I like long shots so I’ve gone on the 30-40 option. 6/1 seems a good price. This might be crazy but Ukip did very well for me in Eastleigh beating both Labour and the Tories at nice odds. I like the look of the Ukip candidate who I feel will…

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The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past

The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past

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Labour’s candidate in South Shields, Emma Lewell-Buck sets out her “pledges”. goo.gl/77tx8 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 After its defeat in 1992 Labour went to great lengths to ensure that it would not lose a fifth successive general election. A key part of the strategy was a ruthless approach to targeting. So seats that were beyond the party’s reach were simply ignored and seats in Labour’s heartlands which were certainties were also put into that category. That…

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LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?

LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?

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The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 The Sunday Times today publishes the annual projection of national equivalent national vote share for the May local elections based on the performances of the parties in local by-elections. This, of course, is the production of the duo of Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher from the University of Plymouth. They, alongside Professor…

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