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Month: April 2013

With four days to go until LE2013 the Sun turns its fire on Farage and Ukip

With four days to go until LE2013 the Sun turns its fire on Farage and Ukip

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A rare attack on Farage in the Sun -over lack of candidate vetting by UKIP for LE2013 goo.gl/lTPqR twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2013 Maybe they don’t want the Tories too damaged on Thursday? Given the sympathetic coverage that Nigel Farage and the purples have had in the run-up to LE2013 today’s coverage in the Sun about their local candidate selection procedures comes as something of a surprise. The story is over the backgrounds of some of those…

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David Herdson says the LDs will not be able to avoid addressing the GE2015 Mandate question

David Herdson says the LDs will not be able to avoid addressing the GE2015 Mandate question

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If the circumstances required would they go with the winner on votes or seats? Prior to the last general election, Nick Clegg stated that in the event of a hung parliament, “the party which has got the strongest mandate from the British people will have the first right to seek to govern … the votes of the British people are what should determine what happens afterwards.  Whichever party have the strongest mandate from the British people … have the first…

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Henry G Manson looks at the politics of food banks

Henry G Manson looks at the politics of food banks

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Chart from Left Foot Forward What should be the best response? This week Ed Miliband was campaigning in Oxfordshire and visited a food bank in the Prime Minister’s constituency. I was surprised that the people of Witney needed a food bank, but perhaps it’s a sign of the times. It struck me how ‘food banks’ have become a live political issue now and are not just a response to real hardship. How MPs and political parties respond to their growth…

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My 50-1 shot for the GOP WH2016 nomination moves into the lead in New Hampshire

My 50-1 shot for the GOP WH2016 nomination moves into the lead in New Hampshire

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PPP poll on the N Hampshire GOP race for WH2016 has Rand Paul on 28% – 3% up on fav Rubio. goo.gl/RW2Ih twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2013 Back on November 17th 2012 I backed Ron Paul’s son, at 50/1, to be the WH2016 Republican nominee. A PPP poll in the first full primary state of New Hampshire had him at just 4%. Today a new PPP New Hampshire poll is out putting Rand in the lead on…

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Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)

Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)

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Norden on Rochdale (Con defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 42, Con 13, Lib Dem 5 (Labour overall majority of 24) Last Electoral Cycle (2010 – 2012) Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Name of party Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Con 1,927 36% 1,814 57% 1,624 68% Lab 839 16% 846 27% 604 25% Lib Dems 2,240 42% 511 16% 175 7% BNP 319 6% Candidates…

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The share of the GB vote required for an overall majority – your interactive checker

The share of the GB vote required for an overall majority – your interactive checker

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The above is based on data from Professor John Curtice on what vote leads LAB and CON require to put them over the threshold of 326 to win an overall majority at GE2015. This is, of course, calculated on a uniform national swing (UNS) in each GB seat. At GE2010 the Tories over-performed UNS by a bit. For the Tories more than LAB, click the tab on the chart, the LD share is critical. At a 10% yellow share the…

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A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

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40% of UKIP voters prefer a CON majority Today’s YouGov poll sees an MOE change with LAB is increasing its lead over the Tories by 1%.Nothing much there except that once again EdM’s party is in single figures. Using the interactive chart above you can see how each set of party supporters responded and one that stands out for me is the Ukip split with 40% saying they’d prefer a CON majority. That still, however, leaves 60% not saying that….

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Now EdM is in a standoff with the biggest union baron of them all

Now EdM is in a standoff with the biggest union baron of them all

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Just when you thought politics was getting boring EdM takes on Len Mcluskey – goo.gl/PL9aA twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013 Miliband calls out McCluskey. But with Unite providing more than a ¼ of Labour funds, this is going to be a v difficult relationship for him — James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) April 24, 2013 By rejecting Blair one week and McCluskey the next has Ed M emerged as the reasonable moderate? That’s what he’ll hope. — George Eaton…

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