Eastleigh: Now Survation for the Mail on Sunday has the Tories 4 percent ahead

February 23rd, 2013

Is it going to be down to a battle of the pollsters

It’s very rare that ahead of a election two pollsters give diametrically opposite projections of the outcome.

Well that’s the situation tonight following a new by-election poll just out for tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday which has projected vote shares that are very different from last night’s Populus poll for the Times. That had a 5% Lib Dem lead – Survation, as can be seen from the chart above is showing a 4% CON lead.

Like Populus Survation has LAB right out of it but Ukip moving forward fast. The figures are CON 33: LAB 13: LD 29: UKIP 21 Ukip 22

A fortnight ago Survation had the Lib Dems 3% ahead.

The Survation fieldwork started before Populus and finished yesterday. Both are phone polls.

No doubt this will set the betting markets alight.

Mike Smithson

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