Scotland’s most accurate pollster suggests that Alex Salmond’s magic might be on the wane

October 18th, 2012

In the week that the referendum deal was signed….

There’s a new Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll for the Times this morning that has support for independence declining, the SNP’s Holyrood vote share down, and a reduction in Alex Salmond’s approval ratings.

Independence At the start of 2012 the firm, which came top of the 2011 Holyrood polling accuracy table, recorded that 39% of those certain to vote supported independence. in June that was down to 35% and today’s poll has it slipping even further to 30%.

A big challenge is a gender gap. Just 24% of women would vote ‘Yes’ compared with 37% of men. The age group that is most supportive is the 35-54 age group where it is at 35%.

    The latest Holyrood voting intentions with comparisons on June are SNP 40%-5/LAB 35%+3/CON 13%+1/LD 8%+2

Salmond’s leader ratings are 50% satisfied to 40% dissatisfied. This is a net rating plus 10% which is down 3 on June. In January Salmond had a net satisfaction rating of 35%.

Although the trend is moving downwards Salmond’s ratings are positive unlike Dave, Ed and Nick.

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