How the 47 percent gaffe is killing Romney: The betting and the polling

September 28th, 2012


Plus the latest RCP averages from the key swing states

OHIO (2008: Obama +4.6, 2004: Bush +2.1)

VIRGINIA (2008: Obama +6.3, 2004: Bush +8.2)

FLORIDA (2008: Obama +2.8, 2004: Bush +5.0)

In a new article on the excellent 538 blogNate Silver makes the following observation about the impact of the 47%.

    “After a secretly-recorded videotape was released on Sept. 17, showing Mitt Romney making unflattering comments about the “47 percent” of Americans whom he said had become dependent on government benefits, I suggested on Twitter that the political impact of the comments could easily be overstated.

    “Ninety percent of ‘game-changing’ gaffes are less important in retrospect than they seem in the moment,” I wrote.

    But was this one of the exceptional cases? A week and a half has passed since Mr. Romney’s remarks became known to the public — meaning that there’s been enough time to evaluate their effect on the polls.There’s a case to be made that they did damage Mr. Romney’s standing some.”

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Mike Smithson