Up to 25 *Tories* would vote against boundary review – six of the eight in Wales for example. Cameron will ditch this Autumn, I think

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) August 16, 2012

The above Tweet from Sam Coates of the Times is the first attempt that I can recall to calculate how many Tory rebels there’d be on the boundaries if it ever got to a vote.

The Coates projection of 25 would be enough to kill the plan even if all the Lib Dem ministers voted for the proposals.

The problem here is that for many MPs the first consideration are, naturally, their own jobs and livelihoods not the wider good of the party.

Inevitably there were going to be Tory losers and it was always going to be a challenge getting them on side.

Even the process of having to go through re-selections was not something that many MPs wanted to counter irrespective of the overall benefit that the plan would achieve.

I think that the Coates assessment is correct and this is not going to happen.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB