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Month: July 2012

ICM unchanged at CON 34, LAB 39, LD 14

ICM unchanged at CON 34, LAB 39, LD 14

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The July poll from ICM for the Guardian has all three parties unchanged. CON 34/LAB39/LD14 bit.ly/LIeoDq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 ICM. With Blair as leader it would beLAB 36%(-3), CON 34%(nc) LD 15%9+1) and others 14%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 ICM: Dave/Geroge trusted by 40% on the economy compared with 29% for the Two Eds. Last month the lead was 9% bit.ly/LIeoDq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 Just 33% tell ICM that…

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Should Osborne go or stay? The pollsters’ verdict

Should Osborne go or stay? The pollsters’ verdict

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“Osborne should…” GO STAY Populus 38%* 15%* ComRes 44% 20% YouGov 45% 20% But he’s secure, surely, while Dave is PM? Over the past week three major pollsters have asked those in their samples whether the Chancellor, George Osborne, should go. The simplified results are above. The Populus question was “In the next couple of months David Cameron is likely to hold a reshuffle of his Cabinet, for each of the following members of his Cabinet. Please say whether a)…

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Lords Reform – an alternative

Lords Reform – an alternative

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Might a plan like this win more approval? Conspiracy theorists have ascribed the revolt by many Conservative backbenchers earlier this month in the vote on Lords reform to any number of factors. What it really boiled down to was that it was viewed as the wrong solution to an irrelevant problem. It’s seen as an irrelevant problem by many in the Commons on both sides of the chamber because whatever the theoretical deficiencies of the Lords, its unelectedness assures the…

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Continuation thread

Continuation thread

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With the final day of the Tour de France my mind has been on things other than politics. This has been a brilliant day for cycling enthusiasts like me made even better by picking up a four figure sum in betting winnings. Thanks to Ladbrokes for paying out so quickly. I was going to write on the US election but that will have to wait. Mike Smithson Recent Threads

Will YouGov fuel the Cable speculation?

Will YouGov fuel the Cable speculation?

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Preferred Chancellor Total Vince Cable 22% William Hague 16% Ken Clarke 9% Phillip Hammond 3% Theresa May 2% Nick Clegg 2% Don’t know 47% We’ve now got the full details of the Sunday Times YouGov finding on who those politicians it is thought would make the best replacement Chancellor for Mr.Osborne. As can be seen there was a high don’t know element. By netting off the don’t knows we find that of those expressing a view 42% go for the…

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Was Vince putting his hat into the ring for the LD leadership?

Was Vince putting his hat into the ring for the LD leadership?

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Could the 69 year old be serious? Five years ago when Ming Campbell decided to step down as Lib Dem leader Vince didn’t put his name forward because he and others thought that his age would be against him. He’s now 69 and his FT interview this morning has set off a buzz that he might indeed be considering such a possibility. His response when the question was put was that he “wouldn’t exclude it” which is further than anything…

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What will the “Turnip Taleban” say about Liz Truss now?

What will the “Turnip Taleban” say about Liz Truss now?

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New Statesman Did they nearly stop Mrs Thatcher Mark 2? Liz Truss, the 38 year old ex-President of the Oxford University Liberal Democrats turned Tory MP, first came to national prominence six months before the general election when what became dubbed as the “Turnip Taleban” sought to de-select her in her SW Norfolk constituency. A leader of this faction was quoted at the time as saying: “Sorry, no, I have never said I’m anti-women. I have got absolutely nothing against…

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Who do we want to be our MP and how are we going to get them?

Who do we want to be our MP and how are we going to get them?

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Henry G Manson’s weekly column It struck me as odd the other day. A few weeks back Labour said it needed to attract more working class parliamentary candidates. This is a worthwhile aim given the professionalisation of British politics and even more so for a party set-up by organised labour. It was something of an embarrassment when an aspiring parliamentary candidate in solid working class strongholds has a £5000 personalised number plate. We need to move away from that. So…

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