Archive for July, 2012


Is Vince planning to leave the cabinet to become LD leader?

Thursday, July 26th, 2012

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Would this position the yellows better for the general election?

Tramadol Hydrochloride Buy Online Uk There’s a fascinating piece of speculation by Sue Cameron in the Telegraph about the Lib Dem leadership and the cabinet re-shuffle. She writes:

    “..Interesting speculation… about Vince Cable, 69, the Business Secretary, who may step down with a view to becoming leader of the Lib Dems in the Commons. (The Lib Dem leader doesn’t have to be in the Cabinet even in coalition, and Nick Clegg could continue to be Deputy PM). Why should Mr Cable give up a job he enjoys? Because if Labour is the largest party after the next election, it will never do a deal with Mr Clegg but it could work out a Lib-Lab pact with Mr Cable. The latter would want Danny Alexander to take over as Business Secretary, with David Laws going back as Chief Secretary.”

follow link This would, of course, require Nick Clegg to resign as party leader in order to create the vacancy. There would then be an election and given the murmurings of the past few days then you’d expect Cable to put his hat into the ring. If he did then I’m pretty sure that he’d win

source site Clegg would then be in a strange position – deputy PM but not leader of his party. Whether that’s sustainable I don’t know. From a general election perspective the Lib Dems require a significant level of Labour tactical voting in the key CON-LD battlegrounds. Those include seats already in yellow hands and those Tory seats where they are in a strong second place.

    follow link A Cable leadership but him not being in the Cabinet could certainly encourage that making the Tory objective of winning a majority more remote. If this is correct then it impacts on a whole range of betting markets from the leadership itself to whether Clegg will step down as party leader before the election.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

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Dave’s “Best Prime Minister” lead narrows to just 5 points

Thursday, July 26th, 2012

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He was beating Ed by 24% only six months ago

Tramadol Online Yahoo When the Tories started to slip behind in the voting intention polling the party would take some comfort in the fact that their man invariably did far better than Ed Miliband in the leadership ratings. We heard it time and time again – there was no way, it was said that voters would ever elect the geeky Ed Miliband as PM. Then in the period following Osborne’s budget cock-ups the blues appeared to be getting everything wrong and Ed edged up and then took a lead in the leadership numbers.

    Cheapest Tramadol Overnight But there was another comfort zone for the Tories – the constant Cameron leads in the Best PM numbers.

    source Those we were told what really mattered and here Ed was a long way behind.

Tramadol Online Well we had some more of these ratings overnight from YouGov and Dave’s lead has been cut back to just 5%

go here The trend is seen in the chart above.

enter It is not inconceivable that Ed could soon be almost level pegging.


Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

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Buying Tramadol From Mexico Posted in David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Pollsters/polling | 512 Comments »


The NHS and immigration are the top movers in the MORI Issues Index

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012
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Pensions & education move into the top 10 The July issues index from Ipsos-MORI for the Economist is just out and as can be seen from the chart there are big increases for immigration and the NHS.

source This polling has been carried out in the same way for 37 years and involves interviewees being asked face to face and completely unprompted to name the main issues they are are facing the country.

follow url It is always said that the lack of prompting makes this a good test of salience and the pollsters online archive is a great resource. Inevitably it’s the economy that tops people’s concerns followed by unemployment. But this month as well we see big rises for both immigration and the NHS.

follow url Education and pensions also see increase.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

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George needs to choose between politics and economics?

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

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Will the growth figures mean an end to his split jobs?

Order Tramadol 100Mg Online The two positive things for ministers about today’s third quarter of negative figures are that everybody is focused on the Olympics and because the commons is in recess there are not the usual Wednesday PMQs.\think\app/invokefunction/feed/rss2/ But they won’t go away totally unnoticed and provide further ammunition for those who are questioning the government’s strategy and Osborne’s varied roles.

An added challenge is that the “blame the last lot” rhetoric lost a lot of it potency with the budget tax cuts for the very rich.

The GDP news comes after a period when George Osborne has been under great pressure and illustrious predecessors like Nigel Lawson have publicly raised doubts about the chancellor’s multi-roles in this government.

I don’t think that George’s position at the Treasury is under threat though Cameron will do something, surely, to take away some of his responsibilities.

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    The problem is that with so much apparently going wrong with the economy that Osborne needs to be at least seen to be doing the job full-time

Will that happen? If Cameron is sensible it will.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB


New US polling suggests that Condi could be the game-changer

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

Could Rice on the ticket give Romney the White House?

Later today the US pollster, Public Policy Polling, is issuing full details of two state surveys which could have an impact on Mitt Romney’s VP choice.

The firm is very open about the data that is coming in and releases plenty of nuggets on Twitter before the final numbers are published.

Above shows some Tweets, and an answer to a question I put, in relation to state surveys in Michigan and Pennsylvania. PPP have asked questions that I think are unique so far in this campaign – the effect on voting intention of the VP choice.

    As can be seen from the Tweets the polling shows that with the ex-Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, on the ticket Romney would be doing 6% better against Obama in the two states.

Whether these absolute numbers are correct no one knows – but it does point to a trend that the Romney camp will surely take seriously.

I’ve extended my betting position on Rice.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB


Continuation thread

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

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Could EdM be the only one left standing?

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

Does today’s news put Dave’s future in doubt?

Today’s dramatic announcement from the Crown Prosecution Service isn’t good news for David Cameron and must raise the prospect of him not making it through as leader to the general election set for May 2015.

    see url There is a growing anti-Cameron faction within the parliamentary party and there must be a possibility that this could add to it.

This combined with the growing chorus for Vince Cable with the Lib Dems opens up the prospect that the only one of the three main party leaders still in post at the general election could be Ed Miliband.

Is it going to happen? No idea but it’s worth a punt on Betfair’s “leaders at the general election” market. I’ve just had a little flutter on EdM only at 25/2 and EdM amd Nick Clegg at 12/1.

Whatever these prices have the potential to move in sharply.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB


Is paying tradesmen in cash “morally wrong”?

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

Is this extending the tax avoidance effort too far?

Several papers, including the Mail, are carrying reports of the comments by Tory treasury minister, David Gauke that paying cleaners and tradesmen cash-in-hand is “morally wrong”

    He said: ‘Getting a discount with your plumber by paying cash in hand is something that is a big cost to the Revenue and means others must pay more in tax.’ Asked explicitly if he disapproves of the practice, he said: ‘Yes, I think it’s morally wrong.’

The challenge here is the practice this so widespread touching millions of people for whom the notion of paying in cash is a way of keeping their costs down.

  • The big news today will be the announcement at 11am on whether there are going to be charges in the phone hacking case. If there are then posters must be ultra-careful about what they write and potentially offending contribution will be deleted.
  • Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB