Is he really so far ahead?
According to the latest projection by Nate Silver the chances of Obama being re-elected are 68.8%.
Nate, who now writes for the New York Times, has a complex formula based on polling and economic indicators.
This latest projection comes in a great article from someone I rate highly – though I do wonder about rating chances to one decimal point.
I have changed my betting on the race. The mood seems to be swinging to Obama for the moment and I want to ride it.
One thing’s for sure – this will oscillate like crazy in the next four months
Generally there’s a swing to contenders at the time of the party conventions.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB