Archive for March, 2012


LAB 17pc ahead in post cash for access fieldwork

Monday, March 26th, 2012 UPDATED to deal with error

But Populus is showing a different picture There’s a new ComRes telephone poll just out for tomorrow’s Independent which has Labour in its best position since before the 2005 general election.

follow The shares, seen in the graphic above, show a widening of the Labour lead from three to ten points. In the interviews conducted on Saturday, before the cash-for-access revelations emerged, Labour enjoyed a lead of just 4%. It was 39/35/11.

follow link here The sensational part is that in those interviews that took place on Sunday and today after the cash for access disclosures, it was LAB 47%: CON 30%: LD 11% – a LAB lead of 17 points. There were more in the latter batch than the former. To other questions 66% agreed with the statement that the measures announced in the Budget show that the Conservatives are the party of the rich, with 27% disagreeing. George Osborne’s decision to freeze personal tax allowances for pensioners is opposed by a margin of almost 2-1.

LAB moves to 4% lead with Populus

source link

go A big difference difference between the two surveys might be in the fieldwork dates. A part of the ComRes polling took place today as the “cash for access” story dominated the front pages and the bulletins. My guess is that the majority of the Populus fieldwork had been completed before the story broke. The Tory 34% in the Times poll is only one point up from the lowest since the general election



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Eating in at Number 10 – Marf’s take

Monday, March 26th, 2012


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    What’ll be the Sun’s front page on May 7 2015?

    Monday, March 26th, 2012

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    The Sun – general election day May 6th 2010

    Will Rupe back Dave at a second general election?

    enter site The sting operation against the Tory co-treasurer Peter Cruddas is a timely reminder of the power and sophistication of the Murdoch press. These operations require a huge amount of resources and planning and over the years the Wapping papers have dome this better than anybody.

    follow url Both the Sunday Times and the former News of the World have over the years exposed a whole string of individuals who are ready to do things when shed-loads of money are apparently available.

    Tramadol Online Order Cheap Access to top politicians has been a particularly fruitful area and people associated with a number of parties have been ready to go beyond what is acceptable.

    Tramadol Online Overnight Usa I wonder what this attack on the Tories says about Rupert’s view of the Tories. Can the party expect a repeat of his backing at the 2015 general election?

    source url He’s had a particular bruising in Britain over the past year and this latest move follows his overt support for the SNP and Alex Salmond in the Scottish referendum where the Scottish Sun is now firmly in the independence camp.

    Purchase Tramadol Overnight Cheap What about the 2015 UK general election. Will his papers be fully on board in the effort to secure a blue overall majority or will he put his support elsewhere?

    follow url It’s always said that Rupert backs winners. What if the red team’s polling leads continue? Should we expect some understanding with Ed Miliband or Yvette Cooper. The latter now seems to be the Sun’s favourite Labour politician?

    UPDATE – overnight tweets from Rupert Murdoch

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    Marf on the day’s big political news

    Sunday, March 25th, 2012

    Is this the revenge of Rupert?

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    Note from Mike

    Sunday, March 25th, 2012

    Just to say that I am not feeling well and won’t be posting.

    Mike Smithson


    LAB back in the lead with ICM

    Saturday, March 24th, 2012

    Both coalition partners fall back

    There’s bad news for the coalition in the first ICM poll since Wednesday’s budget. A survey for the Sunday Telegraph has shares Tramadol Cod Online CON 37%(-2), LAB 38% (+2), LD 13%(-2). The comparion is with the firm’s Guardian poll carried out last weekend.

    The latest Yougov daily poll has a LAB lead of 7%.

    There’s little doubt that the government has taken a media hammering since Osborne’s speech and it was always going to be hard winning support for tax cuts for the very rich in the current financial climate. Even without the grannytax the government’s communication task was challenging.

    On top of that we have record prices for petrol which is never good news for governments of whatever colour.

    The only consolation for ministers is that the election is a long way off.

    Mike Smithson


    Would it be better if George did the job full-time?

    Saturday, March 24th, 2012

    Was this a reason for the grannytax cock-up?

    The ConHome editor, Tim Montgomerie, paints an extraordinary picture of the many roles that George Osborne has in this government in a opinion piece in today’s Times. He writes:-

    “11 Downing Street is now the headquarters of government in a way that Gordon Brown could only dream of when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer. Where Mr Brown sought more power by relentlessly undermining Tony Blair, Mr Osborne has accumulated power by relentlessly serving David Cameron. Mr Cameron is the coalition’s chairman and public spokesman. Mr Osborne is its chief executive. This is as much Osborne’s Government as Cameron’s.

    He isn’t just Chancellor of the Exchequer, masterminding the coalition’s deficit and growth strategy. He attends all the daily roundtables at No 10. One source tells me that heads rise and look to him, not Mr Cameron, when anyone makes a controversial statement at those meetings….

    …he is also the Conservatives’ chief election strategist. He watches and grooms the new generation of Tory MPs, assessing which will be promoted and which will have to wait. And he is the party’s principal spin doctor — keeping editors and senior columnists in the inside loop more than any of the people who are paid to do that job..”

    Is it any wonder then that amidst all of that then George failed to notice the potential of the granny tax issue particularly as he was also lowering the top tax rate? Handled sensitively this would have been killed stone dead on Wednesday. As it was what was supposed to be a politically astute budget has developed into a PR mess.

    Montgomerie’s solution is to replace Baroness Warsi as party chairman with Michael Gove. I’m not sure about that. If Warsi is to be redeployed then there are others more suitable.

    Whatever the budget aftermath has exposed a big weakness. Too much is being piled on George – he has to let go of something.



    When will Osborne U-turn on Fuel Duty?

    Saturday, March 24th, 2012

    Is the planned rise asking for trouble?

    The PR has unravelled on Osborne’s Budget for much the same reason as it unravelled frequently on those of Gordon Brown: hiding bad news means your opponents get first shot at making the argument on the issue and that then sets the terms of debate. Had he been upfront about the freezing of pensioner tax allowances and set it in the context of the already generous amounts and the freebies and perks that pensioners already get, he might have stood a chance. He didn’t.

    Even so, the story is likely to be at most a one week wonder because there’s not really anywhere for it to go. One reason that this government, like the last one, has been so keen on fiscal drag (in this case, both cutting real-terms expenditure and increasing tax take), is that it takes effect gradually and so is less likely to spark off protests. Few go to the barricade because something has stayed the same. By contrast, visible changes in taxation or charges do spark disquiet and unrest, and few changes are more visible than fuel duty. That’s why Osborne’s decision to stick with the planned 3.6p per litre increase in August seems destined to end in tears if it is carried through.

    The timing – right in the middle of the Olympics – may prevent an immediate reaction but there’s a month of Silly Season straight after the Olympic flame is extinguished for public and media alike. It was the Fuel Protests of 2000 that produced the first crack in the Blair government’s popularity. They too started in August before building to a head in September and followed a combination of Fuel Duty increases and a trebling in the rise in the price of crude oil from $10 a barrel to $30 over the previous eighteen months.

    Considering the sustained increase in petrol prices over the last three years, it’s a little surprising that it hasn’t become an issue already. Obviously, a large part of the increase is down to world factors but equally clearly, the increase rise in Fuel Duty isn’t and just looks to be adding pain unnecessarily, especially given its stated commitment to moderating fluctuations at the pumps, not exacerbating them.

    It’s worth looking at just how big the rise has been. In early 2009, after the credit crunch left spare international capacity in production and refining, crude oil dropped to $34 a barrel and petrol in the UK was only 86p per litre. Oil now trades at more than three times what it did and petrol is retailing at an average of £1.40 per litre. That’s a huge and very noticeable difference.

    The so-called Granny Tax row will subside. Tax thresholds being subject to fiscal drag is very much a stealth tax. To the extent that it does impact, it’s inflation that’s usually the cited concern. By contrast, the Fuel Duty rise has all the potential to become a very serious crisis, as that of 2000 was. Osborne is playing with fire retaining it in his plans – and fire and petrol are best kept apart.

    David Herdson