|Election outcome||New boundaries||Old boundaries|
|LAB MAJORITY||LAB LEAD 4.3%||LAB LEAD 3%|
|LAB MOST SEATS||CON LEAD below 2.2%||CON LEAD below 4%|
|CON MOST SEATS||CON LEAD above 2.2%||CON LEAD 4%|
|CON MAJORITY||CON LEAD above 7.4%||CON LEAD 11%|
LAB can still come top with fewer votes
Thanks to YouGov’s Anthony Wells at UKPR for producing a revised set of notional outcomes following the publication of the proposed new boundaries for Wales.
The table above shows the new broad vote share targets based on a uniform national swing across the England, Scotland and Wales and compares them with the present targets.
As we will recall the CON objective in pushing for equal size seats, fewer MPs overall and a speeded up boundary review process was to try to redress some of what the party saw as the bias against it in the electoral system.
In 2005 Tony Blair won a comfortable LAB majority with 36.2% of the GB vote and a lead over CON of 3%. In 2010 Cameron’s party secured 37% of the vote with a lead over LAB of 6.3% and were 19 seats short of an overall majority.
The big number for the blues from the changes is the reduction from an 11% lead requirement for an overall majority to 7.4% but LAB can still come top with most seats.
LAB continue to do better because of the average lower turnouts in its heartlands. There is also the impact of tactical voting.
The boundary changes are now out for consultation and will not be ready for approval by the commons until October 2013. There is always the possibility that the house could vote them down.
Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH