ICM makes it 68-32 to NO

May 4th, 2011


What’ll be the impact of such an overwhelming defeat for YES?

The final AV referendum polls are coming out and the latest, from ICM, has NO with an overwhelming 68-32 lead. If the split is anywhere near this tomorrow it will be a devastating blow to Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg.

There’s no consolation for them in the figures which represent a remarkable victory for David Cameron who has campaigned so effectively against the changes.

Still to come are final polls from YouGov and Angus Reid – which led the field in terms of accuracy in this week’s Canadian general election. I’ll update this as soon as I get the numbers.

It was ICM, it will be recalled, two and a half weeks ago that first reported that NO was moving towards an unassailable lead. Then it was just 16% – tonight’s gap is 36%.

The pollster also has a Westminster VI poll which has CON 36 (+1): LAB 37 (nc): LD 15.

UPDATE The chart above has been amended to include the final poll from YouGov – a 60-40 split. We are still waiting for Angus Reid.

Mike Smithson