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Would the Tories have held onto this seat with AV?

March 18th, 2011

Could the new system dilute the UKIP threat?

I don’t usually pay much attention to local by-election results but this one from last night might cause some concerns in Tory ranks. A seat in Tunbridge Wells is lost following a huge surge in the UKIP vote while the Lib Dem support was not much down on what happened on general election day last year.

It doesn’t take a skilled mathematician to work out that if the election had been under AV then the blues might have held on. Between them UKIP and the Tories got 57.7% of the vote – well ahead of the Lib Dem 43.3%.

Mike Smithson