h1

MORI has the SNP just ahead in Scotland

February 16th, 2011

http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/2011+Jan/MORI+scotland+Feb+11.gif

There’s a new poll from Ipsos-MORI on the May 5th Scottish parliament elections which has the SNP just ahead of Labour – the first time this has happened. Compared with the last survey from the pollster the SNP is up 6 while Labour is down five.

For the regional list voting intention MORI has: SNP 35%(+3) LAB 33%(-3): CON 13%(+1): LD 10%(+1):GRN 6%

Until this point everything seemed to be pointing to Labour coming out on top even if they might be shortage of an overall majority.

John Curtice projects that these shares would produce a parliament with SNP 51:LAB 48: CON 14: LD 12: GRN 4..

The party that might be taking most comfort from the figures are the LDs. In 2007 they won 16 Holyrood seats – just four ahead of the projection.

Quite why Labour should have seen a fall-off in support since last November is hard to explain – giving their improving position across the UK.

The main conclusion is that these elections could be tighter than the pundits were predicting.

Mike Smithson