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Are people “mis-remembering” about voting Lib Dem?

July 28th, 2010

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Do more say they were Yellow than actually were?

get link We all know the big story of the general election and the polls. When the votes were counted the 23.6% GB share that the Lib Dems chalked up was much smaller than all the pre-election polls. At one point YouGov had Clegg’s party with a four point lead on 34%.

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http://novimet.com/pt/search/yumiaoga.cn Yet eleven weeks on from May 6th an interesting trend has developed.

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Tramadol 100Mg Online Overnight Best Way To Order Tramadol Online When pollsters ask how people voted they invariably find that a greater proportion “remember” voting Liberal Democrat than actually did so.

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Generic Tramadol Online In fact the “memory” of interviewees is more in line with what people were telling pollsters in the final week – not with what actually happened.

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Tramadol Online Mexico A big academic post-election survey has observed the same phenomenon.

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http://hudsonriverpilots.com/register/ After previous elections the false recall element has tended to apply more to declared Labour voters not the other two parties.

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source link The possibility of mis-remembering is the reason that the pollsters that past vote weight their samples factor in an element to deal with false recall. TICM, Populus and ComRes each have a different formula for dealing with this and different target weightings.

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http://g-lab.ca/news/ In its voting intention polls ComRes, for instance, has targets of C24-L19-LD15 – the balance being other parties, refusers, and those who say they didn’t vote.

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Rx Tramadol Online Unfortunately, and wrongly in my view, ComRes does not apply these weightings in its surveys for the BBC. So in last Friday’s Newsnight poll a third more people who said they “remembered” voting Lib Dem were included than in their main VI surveys. This can skew the results.

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Order Tramadol Online Cod Overnight The one past-vote weighting pollster at the general election that did not have a “false recall” corrector was Angus Reid – and we all know what happened.

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Mike Smithson

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