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Could this persuade Dave to ditch Nick?

July 15th, 2010

Could Dave be tempted to go for an election?

The above Tweet from the Sun certainly seemed to have got people going overnight overnight but how feasible is the idea of the blues going it alone? Surely the Sun’s political team have got this one wrong?

Although a 43% share sounds good the poll numbers represents an increase in the CON share of 6% and an increase in the LAB share if 4.3%. That’s a swing to the Tories from Labour of 0.85% which would lead to just three seats changing hands between the two parties.

The big hope for Cameron would be to take Lib Dem seats to get him above the magic 326 line. Certainly on these numbers he would do that but how would that actually work out in practice? Hard to say in the context of what’s gone on since May.

Reneging on the coalition would make it nigh on impossible for the Tories to do another deal with the yellows should a future election not produce the desired outcome.

In any case would the monarch accede to a new election if the reason was that the coalition partners had split. Surely the next step would be to call on the Labour leader to see if he/she could form a government.

The big question, though, is would Dave want to do this? Doesn’t the current arrangement keep both keep the Tim Montgomeries and Graham Bradys in check and provide cover for the cuts programmes?

You get the distinct impression that Dave is happier with the coalition than if the blues had got an overall majority.

One thing’s for sure – there would need to be more polling evidence than YouGov which came in eight position in this year’s polling accuracy table.

Mike Smithson