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PB/Angus Reid poll has the Tories back on 40pc

December 10th, 2009


CON 40%(39)
LAB 23%(22)
LD 19%(21)
OTHERS 18% (18)

Has Labour been hurt by the PBR?

In the first national voting intention poll to be published after Mr.Darling’s PBR statement both Labour and the Tories move up but the Lib Dem drop down.

Fieldwork started on Tuesday and carried on until a few hours ago with just under a third of responses coming in after the Chancellor’s statement.

So of the last four national voting intention polls to come out the Tories are in the 40s with three of them.. The “others” are split – SNP 3%: PC 1%: UKIP 7%: BNP 4%: GRN 3%.

All polling is about trends and yet again an Angus Reid Strategies survey shows very little movement. In all four polls for since the PB series started in October the Tories and Labour have been within a two point range while the Lib Dem have seen a three point one.

The Tory share is very much in line with other recent polls. Where this survey is different is in the levels of support being recorded by the smaller parties and the low Labour share.

This is probably down to methodology. Angus Reid Strategies weight by what respondents say they did in 2005 with no adjustments being made for false recall and to deal with the so-called “spiral of silence”. These are measures used by ICM, Populus and ComRes.

The full data should be out by tomorrow.

UPDATE – 8pm: The full data for tonight’s poll is available here.

Mike Smithson