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New YouGov poll has Dave slightly further ahead

June 28th, 2009


CON 40 (+2) LAB 24 (-1) LD 17 (-1)

But the changes are all within the margin of error

There was a new poll out overnight after all and we are just picking up the details. It was in the People which carried a similar YouGov poll only a few weeks ago. No fieldwork dates are mentioned but I assume that this took place after the Telegraph’s YouGov survey which we featured here on Thursday evening.

Let’s hope that the People will be featuring regular polls like this in the run-up to the election. Someone will correct me if I’m wrong but I recall reading somewhere that the paper has decided to give up its long-standing support for Labour.

Given the close proximity of the surveys you would not expect that much change and that’s what happened. The big thing for the Tories is that they are back in the 40s again – which will give them some heart.

But two and one point changes are not really significant and well within the margin of error. That’s what I said on Thursday evening when Labour deficit appeared to be narrowing and the same applies this morning.

There isn’t much extra detail in the People’s story which uses the poll as a sort of scene-setter for tomorrow Brown relaunch (mark 37!!).

It is hard given to see what Brown can do to pull things back and Labour supporters are probably not resting too many hopes on tomorrow’s announcements. The fact that we’ve seen all this before seriously undermines its importance.

I’m maintaining my spread-betting moratorium on LAB-CON seats on the spread markets. A new leader could change Labour’s fortunes.

Mike Smithson