How will Politicalbetting’s finest do in the year ahead?
With a providential 100 entries exactly for the PB forecaster of the year competition, the predictions have been crunched and the key findings are now available.
PM, Opposition Leader, Lib Dem leader at Xmas: 96% and above for all three current incumbents.
Speaker at Xmas: Martin 65% Campbell 23%
Chancellor at Xmas: Darling 71% Balls 21%
Ireland Yes %: Average 47.4%, 56% predict a second “No”
Euro averages: Con 37, Lab 26, Lib Dem 16, UKIP 8
Israel PM: Livni 46% Netanyahu 39%
FTSE 100 30 June: Average 4563, High 8900, Low 3000
Jacqui Smith: Only 38% expect her to last the year
General Election: A massive 97% predict a 2010 election
ICM average highs and lows: Con 45 37, Lab 36 27, Lib Dem 21 14, Con lead 16 3
2009 locals average seat change: Lab -183, Con +218, Lib Dem +3
The spreadsheet is available here: PB 2009 Entries
The 2009 Election Game season is now open – the new season will feature Israel, South Africa, India, the Euros, Japan, Germany, and the Irish EU referendum, as well as any other elections from the 24-country portfolio plus all by-elections for the UK House of Commons.
The season kicks off with year-long games for Leaders and Finance – for more details please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org