The first full voting intention poll following the bail-out plan and Brown being feted round the world is very disappointing for Labour. The figures are above and show the Tories still in the 40s with Brown’s party nine points adrift.
I was expecting something much closer for the fieldwork took place before Cameron’s big speech when all the focus was on the Prime Minister.
There might be other polls tonight which could be better for Labour.
There is one consolation for Brown: The 9% margin, however, does bring the election result, just into hung parliament territory if these vote shares actually happened in a general election and there was a uniform national swing.
There are other non-voting intention numbers in the poll – these are not adjusted for voting intention and therefore include the views of those who have no or little likelihood of voting. Interesting but no good for forcasting elections – and remember that in 1997 the Tories were ahead on the economy in the final polls before Blair’s landslide.
Polling Update There’s another poll out tonight from ICM for the News of the World and it’s hard from the information that is available to work out quite what it is. Are there voting intention numbers or not – that’s not clear.
One report says: “Gordon Brown’s handling of the financial crisis has failed to improve Labour’s prospects at the next general election, according to a poll..While most believe the Prime Minister has handled the situation well, only 13 per cent said they were more likely to vote Labour as a result, an ICM survey for a newspaper found..Another 22 per cent said they were less likely to vote Labour, while 59 per cent told the pollster that Mr Brown’s response to the financial turbulence would make no difference to how they vote.”
We don’t know whether the poll was past vote weighted to ensure a politicly balanced sample or whether a turnout filter has been used. Until we see the detail then we cannot really make a judgement.
Second polling update: There will not be an Ipsos-MORI poll overnight. Fieldwork for their October monitor is under way this weekend and we should know the results on Wednesday or Thursday.
YouGov, meanwhile, are doing a marginals poll which should be out on Wednesday.
UPDATE – BPIX (non-BPC registered)
Lib Dem 13