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The Tories move back to 43% with ICM

November 11th, 2007

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    Cameron’s party now ahead on commons seats spread markets

The main polling news overnight is a new ICM survey for the Sunday Express which has the following shares compared with the last poll by the firm nearly two weeks ago – CON 43% (+3): LAB 35% (nc): LD 15% (-3)

So the main change is that three point shift from the Lib Dems to Cameron’s party reflecting, I would suggest, news coverage during the week following the Queen’s Speech. All the emphasis has been on the intense Brown-Cameron battle with the Lib Dems and their leadership contest being squeezed out.

There’s little doubt that this is a blow to Labour which had been looking to the Queen’s speech as a platform to regain some of the initiative that was lost with the aborted election decision at the start of October.

This has led to some movement overnight on the Commons seats’ spread-betting markets that operate 24/7. Here punters trade on the number of seats the parties will get as though they were stocks and shares. The spread quotes two levels – the higher one which you buy at and the lower one which you sell at. The great joy if your predictions are right is that you can often get out of your bet within a day or so and pocket the profits – irrespective of what the general election outcome actually is.

On Spreadfair, which is a betting exchange where punters and not the bookmaker sets the prices, the Tories have now squeezed past Labour but all the good bets seemed to have been snapped up.

I was fast asleep when the news of this latest poll came out but did manage to get a little bit on with SportingIndex when I woke. This still had a Tory spread of 276-282 with a Labour one of 286-292 seats. Alas all I was allowed to put on was £20 a seat. IGIndex does not operate 24/7.

For there are often good short-term profits to be made made when a poll like this comes out and you are able to get money on. ICM is normally the pollster that is most influential on the betting markets.

For putting today’s shares into the Anthony Wells seat calculator you get CON 328 seats, LAB 273 seats and the Lib Dems 21. Electoral Calculus, which operate on a different formula, gives CON 325 seat, LAB 277 seats and the Lib Dems 19.

Mike Smithson

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