Why I’m putting more money on him going this year? Three news stories in the past couple of days have caused me to put more money on Tony Blair not surviving in the job until the end of the year. First the reports that Lord Levy – Blair’s tennis partner, Middle East envoy and fundraiser – did not answer police questions after his arrest but repeatedly said “no comment” indicate, surely, that this is getting serious. If this goes to…
The wait for the July ICM poll continues It’s now just on 2am and I am off to bed. There is no sign on the Guardian’s web pages of the July ICM survey even though they must have had the data for a couple of days. After suggesting yesterday that the paper was playing a form of striptease this appeared in our comments thread at 5.19pm yesterday evening – “Sorry to keep you waiting for the rest of the poll….
For some reason the comments facility on the previous article does not work. Please can we use this one.
..and why are men unmoved by Cameron? From the full dataset, now available, from last week’s ICM poll for Newsnight it’s clear that the leadership ratings presented on the programme might have given a misleading impression. A chart was shown indicating that those interviewed rated Cameron at 41, Brown at 37: and Campbell at 24 when asked whether the three had the qualities needed to be Prime Minister. This prompted discussion here because the shares added up to 102%. Now…
If you want to know how the parties are doing you’ll have to wait If you had hoped to wake up this morning to read how the parties are getting on as recorded in the longest running and most authoritative polling series in British politics – then tough. The Guardian has decided to play polling striptease with its ICM July poll so although there are hints of goodies to come the paper is making us wait for the key data…
Would Brown’s first move to be to seek a fresh mandate? With John Prescott suggesting yesterday that there’ll be an announcement “very shortly” on the Labour transition there continues to be speculation that the first act of an incoming Gordon Brown government would be to ask the Queen to dissolve parliament so there could be an immediate General Election. Brown would then be able to go to the country to get his own mandate and secure a full term of…
Can you predict David Cameron’s next amazing policy initiative? There’s little doubt that “Hug a Hoodie”, like the earlier attack on WH Smith’s for selling Chocolate Oranges, have becoming defining themes for the new Tory leadership. But what’s going to be next? Clearly it has to be something that is so distant from what you would expect to hear from a Tory leader that it will, at first, appear totally shocking. Can you use your imaginiation to guess what will…
The Shape of Things to Come? It is an axiom of politics in Northern Ireland, that an increase in support for Sinn Fein stimulates an increase in support for the DUP, and vice versa. In the early Eighties, electoral success for Sinn Fein was matched by success for the DUP. In the late Eighties, support for both parties declined. Since 1997, support for both parties has surged, leading them to eclipse their more moderate rivals. I wonder now if something…