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Sean Fear’s local election spot

April 21st, 2006

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    Competition Time

I am offering a £40 Amazon gift voucher to anyone who comes closest to predicting accurately the London Borough Election Results. It is quite straightforward. Each contestant will receive one point for guessing correctly the political control of each London borough after May 4th.

You have five choices: Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Other, or No Overall Control. No Overall Control means failure by any one party to win more than half of the seats on an authority. Thus, if one party takes control with the aid of the Mayor’s casting vote, that will still count as No Overall Control.

Likewise, I will only take into account the result of the election in each borough. If one party takes control as a result of defections, following the election, this will not count towards the result of the competition. Mayoral elections will not count towards this contest (thus if a party wins a Mayoralty, but less than half the council seats, that will count as No Overall Control).

The competition will remain open until Monday 24th April. You may not alter your prediction, once it has been posted. In the event of a tie, then the person who responded most quickly to this post will win. Please leave your correct e-mail addresses on the post form. This is not published.

The results of the 2002 elections were as follows:-

Barnet (Con); Barking and Dagenham (Lab); Bexley (Lab); Brent (Lab); Bromley (Con); Camden (Lab); Croydon (Lab); Ealing (Lab); Enfield (Con); Greenwich (Lab); Hammersmith & Fulham (Lab); Hackney (Lab); Harrow (NOC); Havering (NOC); Hounslow (Lab); Hillingdon (NOC); Haringey (Lab); Islington (Lib Dem); Kensington (Con); Kingston (Lib Dem); Lewisham (Lab); Lambeth (NOC); Merton (Lab); Newham (Lab); Redbridge (Con); Richmond (Con); Sutton (Lib Dem); Southwark (NOC); Tower Hamlets (Lab); Westminster (Con); Wandsworth (Con); Waltham Forest (NOC).

Last night’s results were generally good for the Conservatives, in terms of overall vote share, and poor for Labour. However, most of the contests took place in areas of Labour weakness.

Arun DC; Rustington West. Con 769, Lib Dem 581, UKIP 277, 115. An almost identical result to the last time it was contested.
Mendip DC, Frome Keyford; Lib Dem 487, Lab 128, Con 104, UKIP 51. Lib Dem gain from Independent.
South Derbyshire DC; Swadlincote;
Lab 565, Con 356. Lab. Hold. Both Labour and Conservatives benefited from the disappearance of an independent.
Derbyshire Dales DC: Winster and South Dar. Con 316, Lib Dem 281. Con gain from Lib Dem. A striking turnaround from last time.
West Wiltshire DC; Warminster East. Lib Dem 777, Con 736, Independents 241. Lib Dem gain from Con. A very strong performance from the Lib Dems in a part of the world where they have been performing well in by-elections.
Wycombe DC: Tylers Green.
Con 888, Lib Dem 387, Lab 75. An easy Conservative hold.
Buckinghamshire CC: Ryemead.
Con 1,277, Lib Dem 596, Lab 221. Conservative hold.
West Berks. UA, Pangbourne. Con 725, Lib Dem 151, Lab 96. Con. Hold.

Sean Fear

Sean is a Tory activist in London






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